The ozone-climate penalty: past, present, and future.
The ozone-climate penalty: past, present, and future.
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DOI：
10.1021/es403446m
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发表时间：
2013-12-17
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Kleeman, Michael J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rasmussen, D. J.;Hu, Jianlin;Mahmud, Abdullah;Kleeman, Michael J.
预计气候变化将提高全球平均气温，导致已经受到污染的地区对流层臭氧（O3）浓度升高，从而可能侵蚀昂贵的排放控制带来的好处。在过去的三十年里，“臭氧气候惩罚”的幅度普遍下降，这使得对气候对空气质量影响的未来预测变得不确定。研究人员将历史上臭氧对气候的影响归因于氮氧化物排放的减少，但到目前为止还没有将这一理论扩展到对未来影响的定量预测中。在这里，我们展示了一个三维空气质量模型可以分别用于绘制加利福尼亚州中部和南部在NOx限制和NOx饱和条件下不同NOx和VOC排放下的臭氧气候惩罚行为。模拟表明，计划中的O3前体排放控制计划不会像一些观测研究可能暗示的那样，将O3气候惩罚减少到零。结果进一步表明，在NOx限制的空气盆地中，仅通过NOx控制策略就足以减少O3-气候惩罚并减轻O3污染，而在NOx饱和的空气盆地中，可能需要修改排放控制计划，仔细选择减少NOx和VOC排放，以消除O3-气候惩罚，同时将基准情况下的O3浓度降低到所需水平。随着其他地区氮氧化物和挥发性有机化合物排放的演变，需要额外的建模来确定臭氧气候惩罚的行为。
Climate change is expected to increase global mean temperatures leading to higher tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in already polluted regions, potentially eroding the benefits of expensive emission controls. The magnitude of the “O3-climate penalty” has generally decreased over the past three decades which makes future predictions for climate impacts on air quality uncertain. Researchers attribute historical reductions in the O3-climate penalty to reductions in NOx emissions, but have so far not extended this theory into a quantitative prediction for future effects. Here we show that a three-dimensional air quality model can be used to map the behavior of the O3-climate penalty under varying NOx and VOC emissions in both NOx-limited and NOx-saturated conditions in Central and Southern California, respectively. Simulations suggest that the planned emissions control program for O3 precursors will not diminish the O3-climate penalty to zero as some observational studies might imply. The results further demonstrate that in a NOx-limited air basin, NOx control strategies alone are sufficient to both decrease the O3-climate penalty and mitigate O3 pollution, while in a NOx-saturated air basin, a modified emissions control plan that carefully chooses reductions in both NOx and VOC emissions may be necessary to eliminate the O3-climate penalty while simultaneously reducing base case O3 concentrations to desired levels. Additional modeling is needed to determine the behavior of the O3-climate penalty as NOx and VOC emissions evolve in other regions.
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影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Kim, S. -W.;Heckel, A.;Grell, G. A.
通讯作者：
Grell, G. A.
影响因子：
5
作者：
Dawson, John P.;Adams, Peter J.;Pandis, Spyros N.
通讯作者：
Pandis, Spyros N.
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Hu, Jianlin;Howard, Cody J.;Kleeman, Michael J.
通讯作者：
Kleeman, Michael J.
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Baertsch-Ritter, N;Keller, J;Prevot, ASH
通讯作者：
Prevot, ASH
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Fraser, MP;Kleeman, MJ;Cass, GR
通讯作者：
Cass, GR