Estimating the completeness of death registration: An empirical method.
Estimating the completeness of death registration: An empirical method.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0197047
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Lopez AD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adair T;Lopez AD
许多国家和地方政府需要定期衡量死亡登记的完整性，以用于监测和统计目的。现有的方法，例如死亡分布和捕获-再捕获方法，具有许多局限性，例如不准确和复杂性，阻碍了广泛应用。本文提出了一种新颖的实证方法来估计国家和国家以下各级死亡登记的完整性。使用 2015 年全球疾病负担数据库，根据 1970 年至 2015 年 110 个国家的 2,451 个国家年数据，开发了预测死亡登记完整性 Logit 的随机效应模型。预测因素包括登记粗死亡率、五岁以下死亡率、人口年龄结构和五岁以下死亡登记完整性。模型是针对男性、女性和两性分别开发的。所有变量都非常显着，可以可靠地预测各种登记粗死亡率（R 平方 0.85）的登记完整性。在观察到的完整性处于中等水平时，平均误差最高。这些模型显示了数据集外部群体的预测完整性和观察到的完整性之间非常接近的一致性。与巴西各州的混合死亡分布方法高度一致。使用数据集和哥伦比亚部门评估的五岁以下死亡率的不确定性对国家层面预测的完整性影响很小，但对国家以下各级的影响较大。该方法表现出足够的灵活性，可以在给定的登记粗死亡率下预测各种完整性水平。该方法可以利用国家以下各级现有的数据来应用，并可用于评估卫生设施、人口普查和调查报告的死亡的完整性。当成人死亡率相对于给定的五岁以下儿童死亡率异常高时，其效用就会减弱。该方法克服了现有方法的相当大的局限性，并且具有国家和地方政府广泛应用的巨大潜力。
Many national and subnational governments need to routinely measure the completeness of death registration for monitoring and statistical purposes. Existing methods, such as death distribution and capture-recapture methods, have a number of limitations such as inaccuracy and complexity that prevent widespread application. This paper presents a novel empirical method to estimate completeness of death registration at the national and subnational level. Random-effects models to predict the logit of death registration completeness were developed from 2,451 country-years in 110 countries from 1970–2015 using the Global Burden of Disease 2015 database. Predictors include the registered crude death rate, under-five mortality rate, population age structure and under-five death registration completeness. Models were developed separately for males, females and both sexes. All variables are highly significant and reliably predict completeness of registration across a wide range of registered crude death rates (R-squared 0.85). Mean error is highest at medium levels of observed completeness. The models show quite close agreement between predicted and observed completeness for populations outside the dataset. There is high concordance with the Hybrid death distribution method in Brazilian states. Uncertainty in the under-five mortality rate, assessed using the dataset and in Colombian departmentos, has minimal impact on national level predicted completeness, but a larger effect at the subnational level. The method demonstrates sufficient flexibility to predict a wide range of completeness levels at a given registered crude death rate. The method can be applied utilising data readily available at the subnational level, and can be used to assess completeness of deaths reported from health facilities, censuses and surveys. Its utility is diminished where the adult mortality rate is unusually high for a given under-five mortality rate. The method overcomes the considerable limitations of existing methods and has considerable potential for widespread application by national and subnational governments.
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影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Carter, Karen L.;Williams, Gail;Riley, Ian
通讯作者：
Riley, Ian
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
SEKAR, CC;DEMING, WE
通讯作者：
DEMING, WE
影响因子：
1.8
作者：
Rao C;Soemantri S;Djaja S;Suhardi;Adair T;Wiryawan Y;Pangaribuan L;Irianto J;Kosen S;Lopez AD
通讯作者：
Lopez AD
DOI：
10.2307/2736122
发表时间：
1980-01-01
期刊：
POPULATION INDEX
影响因子：
--
作者：
PRESTON, S;COALE, AJ;WEINSTEIN, M
通讯作者：
WEINSTEIN, M
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Mikkelsen, Lene;Phillips, David E.;Lopez, Alan D.
通讯作者：
Lopez, Alan D.