A Prognostic Nomogram for Postoperative Bone Remodeling in Patients with ADDWoR.
A Prognostic Nomogram for Postoperative Bone Remodeling in Patients with ADDWoR.
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ADDWoR 患者术后骨重建的预后列线图
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-22471-x
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发表时间：
2018-03-12
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Yang C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu X;Shen P;Wang X;Zhang S;Zheng J;Yang C
本研究旨在建立一个有效的预测诺模图，用于预测无复位椎间盘前移位（ADDWoR）患者术后骨重建的可能性。该列线图基于2007年1月至2017年1月在上海交通大学附属上海第九人民医院接受ADDWoR手术入路的患者的回顾性研究。采用多因素Logistic回归分析，以开发适合于概率估计模型的变量。采用ROC（AUC指数）和校正曲线分析预测的准确性和区分能力。使用bootstrap回归法对结果进行验证，所有统计检验均为双侧。1110例患者被纳入分析。ADDWoR术后骨重建的概率为0.51。将发病年龄、夜间磨牙症、椎间盘形态、骨密度、Wilkes分级和术后夹板治疗等6个独立的预后因素整合起来构建列线图。概率估计模型在内部和外部验证中均显示出良好的区分度，AUC指数为0.84。术后骨重建概率的校准曲线与实际观察结果最佳一致。总之，建立了一个列线图，为关节镜手术治疗的ADDWoR患者提供术后骨重建的个体预测。
This study aimed to establish an effective prognostic nomogram for predicting the probability of postoperative bone remodeling of patients with anterior disc displacement without reduction (ADDWoR). The nomogram was based on a retrospective study on patients underwent surgical approaches for ADDWoR at Shanghai Ninth People’s Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University from January, 2007 to January, 2017. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop variables suitable for probability estimation model. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were determined by ROC (AUC-index) and calibration curve. Results were validated using bootstrap resampling with all statistical tests two-sided. 1110 patients were included in the analysis. The probability of postoperative bone remodeling in ADDWoR was 0.51. Six independent prognostic factors including age of onset, nocturnal bruxism, disc morphology, BMD, Wilkes’ classification, and postoperative splint therapy were integrated to construct the nomogram. The probability estimation model showed good discrimination in both internal and external validation with AUC-index of 0.84. The calibration curves for probability of postoperative bone remodeling showed optimal agreement with actual observation. In conclusion, a nomogram was established to provide individual prediction of postoperative bone remodeling for patients with ADDWoR treated by arthroscopy surgery.
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影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Gotto GT;Yu C;Bernstein M;Eastham JA;Kattan MW
通讯作者：
Kattan MW
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
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影响因子：
3.1
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影响因子：
3
作者：
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影响因子：
1.9
作者：
HALL, HD
通讯作者：
HALL, HD