Rallying intolerance in the valleys: Explaining support for the extreme right in Wales
Rallying intolerance in the valleys: Explaining support for the extreme right in Wales
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在山谷中集结不宽容：解释对威尔士极右翼的支持
DOI：
10.1057/bp.2013.7
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Goodwin M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goodwin M
在2012年大选中衰落之前，英国民族党（BNP）一直是英国选举中最成功的极右翼政党。然而，尽管该党在英格兰的选举增长引起了人们的关注，但在其他地区（即威尔士）支持BNP的个人和背景驱动因素却被忽视了。考虑到该党在英格兰以外的地区积极竞选，并在对威尔士民族主义的支持重新抬头的情况下，为其种族民族主义吸引了一些支持，缺乏研究令人费解。根据一系列数据，我们研究了威尔士BNP支持的社会经济，政治和人口驱动因素。在总体水平上，我们发现党在经济不稳定和城市地区表现最强，这些地区有大量的社会住房部门，高剥夺率，低教育水平，大量居民从事不稳定的职业，并且经历了自金融危机爆发以来失业率的最大增长。在政治上，我们的研究结果表明，BNP也在投票率低的地区赢得了选票，而这些地区传统上对工党的支持一直很强。对“核心”和“软”支持者的个人分析表明，尽管他们有着相似的特征——受教育程度较低的中年男性往往是技术工人——但“软”同情在女性和年轻公民中似乎更为普遍。最重要的是，尽管威尔士的移民和种族多样性率相对较低，但这两个支持者群体都因对移民的担忧而走向极右，这似乎与更广泛的政治遗弃感紧密相关。与英国的结果相反，我们的研究结果表明，与移民相关的担忧并非源于移民和/或少数群体的实际存在或邻近。相反，结构性经济劣势、政治觉醒和移民的负面影响似乎为威尔士极右翼的有限选举吸引力提供了更有说服力的解释。
Until its decline at the 2012 elections, the British National Party (BNP) was the most electorally successful extreme right party in the United Kingdom. Yet, although the party’s electoral growth in England has attracted attention, individual and contextual drivers of BNP support in other areas – namely, Wales – have been ignored. The lack of research is puzzling, given that the party has actively campaigned beyond England and attracted some support for its ethnic nationalism amidst a resurgence of support for Welsh nationalism. Drawing on a range of data, we examine the socio-economic, political and demographic drivers of BNP support in Wales. At the aggregate level, we find the party performs strongest in economically insecure and urban areas that have large social housing sectors, high deprivation rates, low education levels, large numbers of residents in precarious occupations, and which have experienced the largest increases in unemployment rates since the onset of the financial crisis. Politically, our findings suggest that the BNP has also rallied votes in areas where turnout is low, and where support for Labour has traditionally been strong. Individual-level analysis of ‘core’ and ‘soft’ supporters reveals that although they share a similar profile – less-well educated and middle-aged men who tend to be skilled workers – soft sympathy appears more widespread among women and younger citizens. Foremost, and despite a broader context of comparatively low migration and ethnic diversity rates in Wales, both groups of supporters are driven to the extreme right by concerns over immigration, which appear to be tied strongly to broader feelings of political abandonment. In contrast to results in England, our findings suggest that immigration-related concerns do not stem from the actual presence or proximity of immigrant and/or minority groups. Rather, it appears that structural economic disadvantage, political disenchantment and theperceivednegative impact of immigration provide a more convincing explanation for the limited electoral appeal of the extreme right in Wales.
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