The stability and breakup of nations: a quantitative analysis
The stability and breakup of nations: a quantitative analysis
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国家的稳定与分裂：定量分析
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1586772
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Shlomo Weber
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Desmet;M. Breton;Ignacio Ortuño;Shlomo Weber
本文定量分析了国家的稳定与分裂。在提供公共产品的收益增加和文化异质性增加的成本之间的权衡，调节了代理人对不同地理配置的偏好，从而决定了分离和联盟的可能性。在将模型校准到欧洲之后，我们确定了容易分离的地区和最有可能合并的国家。然后，我们估计了欧盟成员国身份所隐含的货币收益。作为理论的一个测试，我们表明，该模型可以解释南斯拉夫的解体及其解体的动力学。我们发现，南斯拉夫各共和国之间的经济差异决定了解体的顺序，但文化差异，虽然很小，是国家不稳定的关键。本文还提供了经验支持使用遗传距离作为文化异质性的代理。
This paper quantitatively analyzes the stability and breakup of nations. The tradeoff between increasing returns in the provision of public goods and the costs of greater cultural heterogeneity mediates agents’ preferences over different geographical configurations, thus determining the likelihood of secessions and unions. After calibrating the model to Europe, we identify the regions prone to secession and the countries most likely to merge. We then estimate the implied monetary gains from EU membership. As a test of the theory, we show that the model can account for the breakup of Yugoslavia and the dynamics of its disintegration. We find that economic differences between the Yugoslav republics determined the order of disintegration, but cultural differences, though small, were key to the country’s instability. The paper also provides empirical support for the use of genetic distances as a proxy for cultural heterogeneity.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.85.16.6002
发表时间：
1988-08-01
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
CAVALLISFORZA, LL;PIAZZA, A;MOUNTAIN, J
通讯作者：
MOUNTAIN, J