Performance of Major Flare Watches from the Max Millennium Program (2001 – 2010)
Performance of Major Flare Watches from the Max Millennium Program (2001 – 2010)
复制标题
Max Millennium 计划中主要 Flare 腕表的性能（2001 – 2010 年）
DOI：
10.1007/s11207-015-0833-6
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
R. Canfield
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. S. Bloomfield;P. Gallagher;W. Marquette;R. Milligan;R. Canfield
引发太阳耀斑的物理过程尚不清楚，围绕控制粒子加速、能量分配以及粒子和能量传输的过程仍存在重大争论。在许多耀斑的整个过程中，需要在多个能量范围内进行高分辨率的能量、时间和空间观测，以建立对这些过程的理解。从地面和空间仪器中获取高质量的同时数据对于实现这一目标至关重要，这也是启动最大千年计划和主要耀斑观察（MFW）警报的主要动机，旨在协调观测所有≥X1 GOES x射线分类的耀斑（包括部分被分支遮挡的耀斑）。我们对2001年2月1日至2010年5月31日期间MFWs的表现进行了回顾，发现(1)在3407天内（占空比为6.5%）发放了220个MFWs，这些MFWs发生在32个不间断的时间段，通常持续2 - 8天；(2)≥X1的耀斑捕获率为56%，发生时间为MFW天数的19%；(3) MFW周期在适当的时间结束，但如果周期提前24小时开始，捕获的耀斑百分比可能会大幅增加；(4) MFWs成功预报x级耀斑，其真技能统计（TSS）验证指标得分为0.500，与NOAA空间天气预报中心概率预报的分类耀斑/无耀斑解释（TSS = 0.488）相当。
The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood, and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution in energy, time, and space are required in multiple energy ranges over the whole course of many flares to build an understanding of these processes. Obtaining high-quality, co-temporal data from ground- and space- based instruments is crucial to achieving this goal and was the primary motivation for starting the Max Millennium program and Major Flare Watch (MFW) alerts, aimed at coordinating observations of all flares ≥ X1 GOES X-ray classification (including those partially occulted by the limb). We present a review of the performance of MFWs from 1 February 2001 to 31 May 2010, inclusive, which finds that (1) 220 MFWs were issued in 3407 days considered (6.5 % duty cycle), with these occurring in 32 uninterrupted periods that typically last 2 – 8 days; (2) 56% of flares ≥ X1 were caught, occurring in 19 % of MFW days; (3) MFW periods ended at suitable times, but substantial gain could have been achieved in percentage of flares caught if periods had started 24 h earlier; (4) MFWs successfully forecast X-class flares with a true skill statistic (TSS) verification metric score of 0.500, that is comparable to a categorical flare/no-flare interpretation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre probabilistic forecasts (TSS = 0.488).
自动太阳活动预测：使用机器学习和太阳成像自动预测太阳耀斑的混合计算机平台
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Colak T
通讯作者：
Colak T