A self-adaptive intelligence grey predictive model with alterable structure and its application
A self-adaptive intelligence grey predictive model with alterable structure and its application
复制标题
一种可变结构的自适应智能灰色预测模型及其应用
DOI：
10.1016/j.engappai.2015.12.011
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发表时间：
2016-04
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Tong, Mingyu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zeng, Bo;Meng, Wei;Tong, Mingyu
The adaptability of the traditional GM (1, 1) model is poor because it is a rigorous homogenous exponent model with a single fixed structure. To improve the adaptability of the traditional grey model, a self-adaptive intelligence grey predictive model with an alterable structure is proposed in this paper. The proposed model has the advantages of adjustable parameters and is characterised by its variable structure as a homogenous/non-homogenous exponent model or as a single-variable linear–auto-regression model. It can be used to automatically compute the relative optimal modelling parameters and adaptively choose a more reasonable model structure based on the real data characteristics of a modelling sequence. Hence, this novel model outperforms traditional grey models with a single fixed structure. To verify its efficiency and applicability, the proposed model was used to simulate China’s electricity consumption from 2001 to 2013 and to forecast it in 2014 using real data; the results indicate that the novel model has better simulative and predictive accuracy than the GM (1, 1) and DGM (1, 1) models.
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影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Zbou Yuaoquao;Weng Zbaoxi
通讯作者：
Zbou Yuaoquao;Weng Zbaoxi
影响因子：
9
作者：
Hamzacebi, Coskun;Es, Huseyin Avni
通讯作者：
Es, Huseyin Avni
影响因子：
6
作者：
C. Chiang;Ming-Che Ho;Jen-An Chen
通讯作者：
C. Chiang;Ming-Che Ho;Jen-An Chen
DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2012.06.009
发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
12
作者：
Chang, Tsung-Sheng;Ku, Cheng-Yuan;Fu, Hsin-Pin
通讯作者：
Fu, Hsin-Pin
DOI：
10.1108/gs.2011.1.3.274.1
发表时间：
2011-10
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
K. Hipel
通讯作者：
K. Hipel