Modeling for COVID-19 college reopening decisions: Cornell, a case study.
Modeling for COVID-19 college reopening decisions: Cornell, a case study.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2112532119
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发表时间：
2022-01-11
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Zhang Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Frazier PI;Cashore JM;Duan N;Henderson SG;Janmohamed A;Liu B;Shmoys DB;Wan J;Zhang Y
围绕如何安全地重新开放大学的决定直接影响到美国7%的人口（学生，工作人员），并间接影响数千万人（家庭，社区）。在目睹了2020年8月至今在学生中爆发的大规模COVID-19疫情后，大学希望提供安全性，同时最大限度地减少社会和财务成本，尽管疫苗犹豫，疫苗有效性，具有免疫逃逸潜力的更多传染性变体以及社区流行率存在不确定性。当Delta变异占主导地位时，我们发现将学生群体从大多数（75%）转移到完全（100%）接种疫苗，即使所有学生都接种疫苗，每周一次测试接种疫苗的学生，以及更频繁地针对学生的最社会群体进行测试，风险大大降低。我们考虑在大学人群中设计COVID-19干预措施的流行病学建模，这些人群在大流行期间发生了重大疫情。一个核心挑战是预测对输入参数的敏感性，以及这些参数的不确定性。大流行已近2年，由于疫苗接种效果、病毒变异和口罩要求的变化，以及大学的独特特征阻碍了从普通人群的转化：年轻人比例高，无症状感染率和社会接触率较高，以及实施行为和检测干预的能力增强，参数仍存在不确定性。我们描述了一个流行病学模型，该模型构成了康奈尔大学决定在2020年秋季重新开放面对面教学的基础，并支持同时制定的无症状筛查计划的设计，以防止病毒传播。我们展示了这些决策的结构如何允许风险最小化，尽管参数的不确定性导致无法做出准确的点估计，以及这如何推广到其他大学设置。我们发现，即使所有学生都接种了疫苗，每周一次对接种疫苗的本科生进行无症状筛查也能提供针对Delta变异的实质性价值，并且对最具社会性的接种疫苗的学生进行更有针对性的检测提供了进一步的价值。
Decisions surrounding how to safely reopen universities directly impact 7% of the US population (students, staff) and indirectly impact tens of millions more (families, communities). After witnessing large COVID-19 outbreaks among students from August 2020 to the present, universities want to provide safety while minimizing social and financial costs, despite uncertainty about vaccine hesitancy, vaccine efficacy, more transmissible variants with the potential for immune escape, and community prevalence. When the Delta variant is dominant, we find substantial risk reduction in moving student populations from mostly (75%) to fully (100%) vaccinated, in testing vaccinated students once per week even when all students are vaccinated, and in more frequent testing targeted to the most social groups of students. We consider epidemiological modeling for the design of COVID-19 interventions in university populations, which have seen significant outbreaks during the pandemic. A central challenge is sensitivity of predictions to input parameters coupled with uncertainty about these parameters. Nearly 2 y into the pandemic, parameter uncertainty remains because of changes in vaccination efficacy, viral variants, and mask mandates, and because universities’ unique characteristics hinder translation from the general population: a high fraction of young people, who have higher rates of asymptomatic infection and social contact, as well as an enhanced ability to implement behavioral and testing interventions. We describe an epidemiological model that formed the basis for Cornell University’s decision to reopen for in-person instruction in fall 2020 and supported the design of an asymptomatic screening program instituted concurrently to prevent viral spread. We demonstrate how the structure of these decisions allowed risk to be minimized despite parameter uncertainty leading to an inability to make accurate point estimates and how this generalizes to other university settings. We find that once-per-week asymptomatic screening of vaccinated undergraduate students provides substantial value against the Delta variant, even if all students are vaccinated, and that more targeted testing of the most social vaccinated students provides further value.
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影响因子：
17.1
作者：
Cleary B;Hay JA;Blumenstiel B;Harden M;Cipicchio M;Bezney J;Simonton B;Hong D;Senghore M;Sesay AK;Gabriel S;Regev A;Mina MJ
通讯作者：
Mina MJ
DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm7004a3
发表时间：
2021-01-29
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
--
作者：
Fox MD;Bailey DC;Seamon MD;Miranda ML
通讯作者：
Miranda ML
DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm6946e1
发表时间：
2020-11-20
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
--
作者：
Denny TN;Andrews L;Bonsignori M;Cavanaugh K;Datto MB;Deckard A;DeMarco CT;DeNaeyer N;Epling CA;Gurley T;Haase SB;Hallberg C;Harer J;Kneifel CL;Lee MJ;Louzao R;Moody MA;Moore Z;Polage CR;Puglin J;Spotts PH;Vaughn JA;Wolfe CR
通讯作者：
Wolfe CR
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Gressman, Philip T.;Peck, Jennifer R.
通讯作者：
Peck, Jennifer R.
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Chang JT;Crawford FW;Kaplan EH
通讯作者：
Kaplan EH