Repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing models for residential college populations.
Repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing models for residential college populations.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10729-020-09526-0
复制
发表时间：
2021-06
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Kaplan EH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chang JT;Crawford FW;Kaplan EH
在COVID-19疫情的不确定未来下，住宿学院正在考虑重新开放。我们考虑重复SARS-CoV-2检测模型，以控制校园住宅社区的爆发。重复检测的目的是迅速发现和隔离新的感染，以阻止传播，否则会发生在校园内外。该模型允许规格的方面，包括预定的校园居民筛选在给定的频率，测试的敏感性，可以依赖于时间，因为感染，输入感染从校外整个学期，从测试到学生隔离由于实验室周转和学生搬迁延迟的滞后。对于SARS-CoV-2感染年龄的早期（晚期）传播，我们发现，如果每10，000名学生每天发生一次以上的输入性暴露，则每周筛查无法可靠地控制生殖数量超过1.4（1.6）的爆发。每三天进行一次筛查可以控制疫情，前提是如果随着感染时间的推移传播发生得更早（更晚），生殖数量保持在1.75（2.3）以下，但代价是假阳性率增加，需要为检测呈阳性的学生提供更多的隔离宿舍。经常检测，同时尽量减少从检测到隔离的延迟，对于那些发现阳性的人来说，这是防止大规模住宿学院爆发的最可控的杠杆。一个实现模型计算的Web应用程序可用于促进各种场景的探索和考虑。
Residential colleges are considering re-opening under uncertain futures regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. We consider repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing models for the purpose of containing outbreaks in the residential campus community. The goal of repeat testing is to detect and isolate new infections rapidly to block transmission that would otherwise occur both on and off campus. The models allow for specification of aspects including scheduled on-campus resident screening at a given frequency, test sensitivity that can depend on the time since infection, imported infections from off campus throughout the school term, and a lag from testing until student isolation due to laboratory turnaround and student relocation delay. For early- (late-) transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by age of infection, we find that weekly screening cannot reliably contain outbreaks with reproductive numbers above 1.4 (1.6) if more than one imported exposure per 10,000 students occurs daily. Screening every three days can contain outbreaks providing the reproductive number remains below 1.75 (2.3) if transmission happens earlier (later) with time from infection, but at the cost of increased false positive rates requiring more isolation quarters for students testing positive. Testing frequently while minimizing the delay from testing until isolation for those found positive are the most controllable levers for preventing large residential college outbreaks. A web app that implements model calculations is available to facilitate exploration and consideration of a variety of scenarios.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Li, Qun;Guan, Xuhua;Feng, Zijian
通讯作者：
Feng, Zijian
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Kaplan, Edward H.
通讯作者：
Kaplan, Edward H.
DOI：
10.1287/msom.2020.0891
发表时间：
2020-07-01
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Kaplan, Edward H.
通讯作者：
Kaplan, Edward H.
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Peto, Julian;Carpenter, James;Turnbull, Clare
通讯作者：
Turnbull, Clare
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Eubank, S.;Eckstrand, I;Barrett, C. L.
通讯作者：
Barrett, C. L.