Evaluating temporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka: the potential for higher snakebite burdens with climate change.
Evaluating temporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka: the potential for higher snakebite burdens with climate change.
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/dyy188
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
de Silva HJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ediriweera DS;Diggle PJ;Kasturiratne A;Pathmeswaran A;Gunawardena NK;Jayamanne SF;Isbister GK;Dawson A;Lalloo DG;de Silva HJ
蛇咬伤是一种被忽视的热带疾病，许多国家的医疗决策者都忽视了它。先前的研究报告了包括斯里兰卡在内的蛇咬伤流行国家因蛇咬伤而入院率的季节性变化，但尚未对季节性模式进行详细调查。 2012 年 8 月至 2013 年 6 月期间进行了一项全国性社区调查。调查采用多阶段整群设计，对 44-136 个家庭的 165-665 人进行了抽样调查，并记录了所有回顾的上一年发生的蛇咬伤事件。采用对数线性模型来描述每个月发生的蛇咬伤的预期数量，同时考虑季节性趋势和天气条件，并解决研究期间调查工作变化的影响以及调查受访者的回忆偏差。蛇咬伤事件呈现出明显的季节性变化。通常，蛇咬伤的发病率在 11 月至 12 月期间最高，其次是 3 月至 5 月和 8 月，但由于相对湿度的变化，这可能会因年份而异，这也是一个危险因素。较低的相对湿度水平与较高的蛇咬伤发生率有关。如果当前的气候变化预测正确，这可能会导致未来 25-50 年每年蛇咬伤负担增加 31.3%（95% 置信区间：10.7-55.7）。斯里兰卡的蛇咬伤具有季节性变化。此外，在湿度低于预期的时期，预计会出现更多蛇咬伤事件。全球气候变化可能会增加斯里兰卡蛇咬伤的发生率。
Snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that has been overlooked by healthcare decision makers in many countries. Previous studies have reported seasonal variation in hospital admission rates due to snakebites in endemic countries including Sri Lanka, but seasonal patterns have not been investigated in detail. A national community-based survey was conducted during the period of August 2012 to June 2013. The survey used a multistage cluster design, sampled 165 665 individuals living in 44 136 households and recorded all recalled snakebite events that had occurred during the preceding year. Log-linear models were fitted to describe the expected number of snakebites occurring in each month, taking into account seasonal trends and weather conditions, and addressing the effects of variation in survey effort during the study and of recall bias amongst survey respondents. Snakebite events showed a clear seasonal variation. Typically, snakebite incidence is highest during November–December followed by March–May and August, but this can vary between years due to variations in relative humidity, which is also a risk factor. Low relative-humidity levels are associated with high snakebite incidence. If current climate-change projections are correct, this could lead to an increase in the annual snakebite burden of 31.3% (95% confidence interval: 10.7–55.7) during the next 25–50 years. Snakebite in Sri Lanka shows seasonal variation. Additionally, more snakebites can be expected during periods of lower-than-expected humidity. Global climate change is likely to increase the incidence of snakebite in Sri Lanka.
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影响因子：
0.6
作者：
Hansdak, SG;Lallar, KS;Koirala, S
通讯作者：
Koirala, S
影响因子：
0.4
作者：
Dehghani, Rouhullah;Rabani, DayarKhah;Bidgoli, Mohammad Sabahi
通讯作者：
Bidgoli, Mohammad Sabahi
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
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通讯作者：
Madsen, T
影响因子：
8
作者：
Lawrence, MG
通讯作者：
Lawrence, MG
影响因子：
1.5
作者：
Chattopadhyay, Saurabh;Sukul, Biswajit
通讯作者：
Sukul, Biswajit