Voter Responses to Fiscal Austerity
Voter Responses to Fiscal Austerity
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选民对财政紧缩的反应
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Markus Wagner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Evelyne Huebscher;T. Sattler;Markus Wagner
政府很难设计出政治上可持续的应对措施来应对不断上升的公共债务。这些困难的根源在于对财政压力时期普遍存在的制约因素了解有限。例如，一种有影响力的观点认为，财政紧缩不会带来重大的政治风险。但由于战略选择偏差，这项研究可能低估了紧缩对选票的影响。本研究通过在西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利、英国和德国进行调查实验来应对这一挑战。与以前的研究结果相反，结果显示，如果政府提出紧缩措施，连任的机会大大减少。选民们特别强烈地反对削减开支，其次是增税。尽管选民也不赞成财政赤字，但他们更看重紧缩政策的成本，而不是其对财政平衡的潜在好处。这些结论与国际金融机构的政策建议不一致。
Abstract Governments have great difficulties designing politically sustainable responses to rising public debt. These difficulties are grounded in a limited understanding of the popular constraints during periods of fiscal pressure. For instance, an influential view claims that fiscal austerity does not entail significant political risk. But this research potentially underestimates the impact of austerity on votes because of strategic selection bias. This study addresses this challenge by conducting survey experiments in Spain, Portugal, Italy, the UK and Germany. In contrast to previous findings, the results show that a government's re-election chances greatly decrease if it proposes austerity measures. Voters object particularly strongly to spending cuts and, to a lesser extent, to tax increases. While voters also disapprove of fiscal deficits, they weight the costs of austerity policies more than their potential benefits for the fiscal balance. These findings are inconsistent with the policy recommendations of international financial institutions.
选举脆弱性如何影响养老金政治：介绍概念、测量和实证应用
影响因子：
5.3
作者：
Immergut;Abou-Chadi
通讯作者：
Abou-Chadi