Estimation of treatment policies based on functional predictors.

Estimation of treatment policies based on functional predictors.
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DOI:
10.5705/ss.2012.196
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发表时间:
2014-07
期刊:
影响因子:
1.4
通讯作者:
Qian M
Qian M
中科院分区:
数学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
McKeague IW;Qian M

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脑部扫描、质谱分析或基因表达谱等生物特征有一天可能会被用来指导治疗选择和改善结果。本文开发了一种根据随机临床试验的数据通过将患者生物特征解释为功能预测因子来估计最佳治疗策略的方法。使用灵活的函数回归模型来表示治疗效果并构建估计策略。当所有患者都遵循该政策时,通过提供平均结果的预测区间来评估估计政策的有效性。这些预测区间的有效性是在函数回归模型的温和规律性条件下建立的。所提出方法的性能在数值研究中进行了评估。
Biosignatures such as brain scans, mass spectrometry, or gene expression profiles might one day be used to guide treatment selection and improve outcomes. This article develops a way of estimating optimal treatment policies based on data from randomized clinical trials by interpreting patient biosignatures as functional predictors. A flexible functional regression model is used to represent the treatment effect and construct the estimated policy. The effectiveness of the estimated policy is assessed by furnishing prediction intervals for the mean outcome when all patients follow the policy. The validity of these prediction intervals is established under mild regularity conditions on the functional regression model. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated in numerical studies.
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