Uncertainty Quantification and Bayesian Inversion

Uncertainty Quantification and Bayesian Inversion
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不确定性量化和贝叶斯反演

DOI:
10.1002/9781119176817.ecm2071
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发表时间:
2017
期刊:
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
H. G. Matthies
H. G. Matthies
中科院分区:
--
文献类型:
--
作者:
H. G. Matthies

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不确定性估计至少隐含在任何类型的真实的或现象学世界的建模中,并且期望以概率术语实际量化不确定性。这里的重点是不确定系统,通常由偏微分方程建模,其中的随机性是假设空间。传统的计算方法通常使用某种形式的扰动或蒙特卡罗模拟。本文重点介绍了基于随机泛函或谱近似的最新方法,将数学模型中由于参数不确定性而引起的不确定性量化,结合传统的预测系统在给定外部激励或载荷下的行为的能力,称为求解随机正问题。鉴于这种能力,人们有可能使用它来估计或识别未知的,因此通过观察系统响应的数学模型中的不确定参数。这就是所谓的反问题的解决方案,并提供了一个简短的介绍反问题的贝叶斯设置使用的功能或谱近似。
Uncertainty estimation arises at least implicitly in any kind of modeling of the real – or phenomenological – world, and it is desirable to actually quantify the uncertainty in probabilistic terms. Here the emphasis is on uncertain systems, typically modeled by partial differential equations, where the randomness is assumed spatial. Traditional computational approaches usually use some form of perturbation or Monte Carlo simulation. Here the emphasis is on recent methods based on stochastic functional or spectral approximations.Quantifying the uncertainty in mathematical models due to uncertainties in their parameters, combined with the traditional ability to predict the system behavior given external excitations or loadings, is calledsolving the stochastic forward problem. Given this capability, one has the possibility to use this to estimate or identify unknown and hence uncertain parameters in the mathematical model by observing the system response. This is called asolution to the inverse problem, and a short introduction into inverse problems in a Bayesian setting using the functional or spectral approximations is provided.
应用于随机偏微分方程的偏微分方程的变分方法
DOI: --
发表时间: 1998
期刊:
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