Impact of summer heat on urban population mortality in Europe during the 1990s: an evaluation of years of life lost adjusted for harvesting.
Impact of summer heat on urban population mortality in Europe during the 1990s: an evaluation of years of life lost adjusted for harvesting.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0069638
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Biggeri A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baccini M;Kosatsky T;Biggeri A
通过量化夏季高温对急性人口死亡率的影响，预防和应对与热有关的疾病的努力将受益。我们估计了20世纪90年代14个欧洲城市因高温而损失的生命年数，其中包括收获。我们将PHEWE项目估计的因热死亡人数与人口寿命表得出的预期寿命相结合。通过比较滞后第30天的累积热效应和热的直接效应，按地理区域和年龄来量化收获程度。然后，对采收调整后的寿命损失年数进行了评估。如果不考虑采伐，我们估计每年损失的寿命超过23000年，其中55%是75岁以下的人。如果考虑到30天的死亡流离失所，总体影响平均减少了75%。收获在北大陆城市比在地中海城市更明显，在年轻人中比在老年人中更强烈。20世纪90年代，欧洲城市的夏季高温造成了许多人死亡，但这些死亡中很大一部分可能是体弱多病的人，他们的死亡只是短暂地因高温而加速。不同地区和年龄阶层在采收方面的差异可能反映出脆弱个体在人口中所占比例的不同，或者可能表明个体进入和退出高危人群的异质性动态，这些高危人群可能会发生死亡率迁移。
Efforts to prevent and respond to heat-related illness would benefit by quantifying the impact of summer heat on acute population mortality. We estimated years of life lost due to heat in 14 European cities during the 1990s accounting for harvesting. We combined the number of deaths attributable to heat estimated by the PHEWE project with life expectancy derived from population life tables. The degree of harvesting was quantified by comparing the cumulative effect of heat up to lagged day 30 with the immediate effect of heat, by geographical region and age. Next, an evaluation of years of life lost adjusted for harvesting was obtained. Without accounting for harvesting, we estimated more than 23,000 years of life lost per year, 55% of which was among individuals younger than 75. When 30 day mortality displacement was taken into account, the overall impact reduced on average by 75%. Harvesting was more pronounced in North-continental cities than in Mediterranean cities and was stronger among young people than among elderly. High ambient temperatures during summer were responsible for many deaths in European cities during the 1990s, but a large percentage of these deaths likely involved frail persons whose demise was only briefly hastened by heat exposure. Differences in harvesting across regions and classes of age could reflect different proportions of frail individuals in the population or could be indicative of heterogeneous dynamics underlying the entry and exit of individuals from the high-risk pool which is subject to mortality displacement.
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DOI：
10.1007/s00420-010-0534-2
发表时间：
2010-10-01
影响因子：
3
作者：
Khalaj, Behnoosh;Lloyd, Glenis;Dear, Keith
通讯作者：
Dear, Keith
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Vandentorren, S.;Bretin, P.;Ledrans, M.
通讯作者：
Ledrans, M.
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph7062607
发表时间：
2010-06-01
影响因子：
--
作者：
Rocklov, Joacim;Forsberg, Bertil
通讯作者：
Forsberg, Bertil
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
ROMEDER, JM;MCWHINNIE, JR
通讯作者：
MCWHINNIE, JR
DOI：
10.1093/biostatistics/1.3.279
发表时间：
2000-09-01
期刊：
Biostatistics (Oxford, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Zanobetti, A;Wand, M P;Ryan, L M
通讯作者：
Ryan, L M