Analyzing the dominant SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes toward an ab initio disease spread model.
Analyzing the dominant SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes toward an ab initio disease spread model.
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DOI：
10.1063/5.0034032
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发表时间：
2020-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Saha A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chaudhuri S;Basu S;Saha A
确定SARS-CoV-2病毒不同传播途径的相对重要性是一项紧迫的研究优先事项。为此，本研究分析了不同的传播途径及其在决定2019冠状病毒病大流行演变中的作用。分别计算吸入载有病毒的液滴（初始喷射直径在0.5 µm和750 µm之间，因此包括空气传播和弹道液滴）和液滴蒸发后主要包裹病毒体的相应干燥核引起感染的概率。在典型的空调但安静的室内空间，对于平均病毒载量，发现初始直径在10 µm和50 µm之间的咳嗽飞沫具有最高的感染概率。然而，当它们被吸入时，直径减小到其初始直径的约1/6。由于液滴引起的最初接近1的感染概率在最初的25 s内迅速衰减，而干燥的核的小而持续的感染概率仅通过假设病毒在干燥的液滴核内与在液滴中同样良好地维持而略微衰减。与分子碰撞理论相结合，适用于计算易感人群和液滴/核云之间的接触频率，感染速率常数从头开始推导，导致一个不稳定的暴露-感染-恢复-死亡模型适用于任何呼吸事件-载体组合。的病毒载量，最低感染剂量，病毒半衰期的敏感性，其载体的阶段，和稀释的呼吸道射流/喷烟夹带空气的机械确定特定的物理模式的传输和变化的基本再现数从第一原理计算。
Identifying the relative importance of the different transmission routes of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is an urgent research priority. To that end, the different transmission routes and their role in determining the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic are analyzed in this work. The probability of infection caused by inhaling virus-laden droplets (initial ejection diameters between 0.5 µm and 750 µm, therefore including both airborne and ballistic droplets) and the corresponding desiccated nuclei that mostly encapsulate the virions post droplet evaporation are individually calculated. At typical, air-conditioned yet quiescent indoor space, for average viral loading, cough droplets of initial diameter between 10 µm and 50 µm are found to have the highest infection probability. However, by the time they are inhaled, the diameters reduce to about 1/6th of their initial diameters. While the initially near unity infection probability due to droplets rapidly decays within the first 25 s, the small yet persistent infection probability of desiccated nuclei decays appreciably only by , assuming that the virus sustains equally well within the dried droplet nuclei as in the droplets. Combined with molecular collision theory adapted to calculate the frequency of contact between the susceptible population and the droplet/nuclei cloud, infection rate constants are derived ab initio, leading to a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-deceased model applicable for any respiratory event–vector combination. The viral load, minimum infectious dose, sensitivity of the virus half-life to the phase of its vector, and dilution of the respiratory jet/puff by the entraining air are shown to mechanistically determine specific physical modes of transmission and variation in the basic reproduction number from first-principles calculations.
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