Impact of tobacco control policies implementation on future lung cancer incidence in Europe: An international, population-based modeling study.
Impact of tobacco control policies implementation on future lung cancer incidence in Europe: An international, population-based modeling study.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100074
复制
发表时间：
2021-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Soerjomataram I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gredner T;Mons U;Niedermaier T;Brenner H;Soerjomataram I
尽管最近吸烟率呈下降趋势，但吸烟仍然是欧洲最可预防的癌症原因。我们的目的是估计未来肺癌病例的数量和比例，如果欧洲国家全面实施烟草控制政策，在20年内可能会预防。基于人群的癌症发病率（或死亡率）的历史数据被用来预测30个欧洲国家到2037年的性别特异性肺癌发病率。通过结合国家当前吸烟流行率数据和关键烟草控制政策实施状况数据，估计了假设的国家特定吸烟流行率，即如果国家实现了最高水平的烟草控制政策实施（由烟草控制量表的最高总分定义）。由此产生的潜在可预防肺癌病例的数量和比例是在考虑吸烟流行率变化和过度癌症风险之间的潜伏期的情况下估计的。在欧洲，估计有165万例肺癌病例（21.2%，男性19.8%，女性23.2%）可以在20年内预防最高级别的烟草控制政策。欧洲各地区和国家的情况差异很大，反映了目前的烟草控制水平，西欧（24.5%）、南欧（23.1%）和东欧（22.5%）的预防潜力最大，北方的进一步预防潜力最小，但仍然很大（12.5%）。在女性中，肺癌发病率预计会增加，我们估计可预防的肺癌病例比例略高于男性（8.6 - 28.5%），范围为9.9%-33.9%。在研究期的最后一年（2037年），某些国家的女性中这一比例甚至超过50%。在最全面的层面上改进和扩大循证烟草控制政策的实施，可以大大降低整个欧洲未来的肺癌发病率。该研究由德国Krebshilfe基金会资助，资助号为70112097。
Despite recent trends in declining smoking rates, tobacco smoking remains the most preventable cause of cancer in Europe. We aimed to estimate numbers and proportions of future lung cancer cases that could be potentially prevented over a 20-year period if countries in Europe were to achieve a comprehensive implementation of tobacco control policies. Historical data from population-based cancer incidence (or mortality) was used to predict sex-specific lung cancer incidence for 30 European countries up to 2037. Hypothetical country-specific smoking prevalence that would be expected if countries would have achieved the highest-level implementation of tobacco control policies (defined by the maximum total score of the Tobacco Control Scale, TCS) was estimated by combining national prevalence data on current smoking and data on the status of implementation of key tobacco control policies. Resulting numbers and proportions of potentially preventable lung cancer cases were estimated taking into account latency periods between changes in smoking prevalence and excess cancer risks. In Europe, an estimated 1·65 million lung cancer cases (21·2%, 19·8% in men and 23·2% in women) could be prevented over a 20-year period with the highest-level implementation of tobacco control policies. Large variation was seen in European regions and countries reflecting the current level of tobacco control, with the largest potential for prevention in Western Europe (24·5%), Southern Europe (23·1%) and Eastern Europe (22·5%), and the lowest but still substantial potential for further prevention in Northern Europe (12·5%). In women, among whom lung cancer incidence is expected to increase, we estimated somewhat larger proportions of preventable lung cancer cases ranging from 9·9 to 33·9% as compared to men (8·6–28·5%). In the final year of study period (2037), these proportions even exceed 50% in women for some countries. Improved and expanded implementation of evidence-based tobacco control policies at the most comprehensive level could reduce future lung cancer incidence considerably across Europe. The study was funded by the (“Deutsche Krebshilfe”), grant number 70112097.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Levy, David T.;Huang, An-Tsun;Clancy, Luke
通讯作者：
Clancy, Luke
影响因子：
39
作者：
Inoue-Choi M;Liao LM;Reyes-Guzman C;Hartge P;Caporaso N;Freedman ND
通讯作者：
Freedman ND
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Ball, Jude;Sim, Dalice;Edwards, Richard
通讯作者：
Edwards, Richard
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Joossens, L.;Raw, M.
通讯作者：
Raw, M.
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Blecher, Evan
通讯作者：
Blecher, Evan