An improved interior-outer-set model framework for flood hazard analysis
An improved interior-outer-set model framework for flood hazard analysis
复制标题
一种改进的洪水灾害分析内外集模型框架
DOI：
10.1007/s00477-020-01836-7
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发表时间：
2020-07
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Wang Peng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zheng Yanhui;He Yanhu;Cai Yanpeng;Wang Peng
洪水灾害是地球仪面临的最具破坏性的灾害之一，因此洪水灾害分析是洪水管理的一个重要因素。由于洪水灾害的随机性和可预测性，对于某一洪水位，需要一系列的可能性，而不仅仅是一个确切的概率。作为一种基于信息扩散理论的模糊风险分析方法，内-外-集模型（IOSM）具有反映洪水风险的随机性和模糊性的潜力，但在洪峰流量特大或洪水样本集中的情况下，控制区间可能没有样本点。在此基础上，提出了一种新的洪水风险分析框架。首先，洪水样本提取每日观测的洪峰流量数据。其次，以洪水频率分析（FFA）得到的设计洪峰流量为控制点，对传统的IOSM进行改进。在此基础上，通过基于FFA的IOSM（FFA IOSM）估计概率和洪水危险度值。结果表明，与传统的IOSM方法相比，该方法能更有效地反映洪水灾害的随机性和未来性。该研究为洪水工程的合理实施提供了依据，并为政府在极端降水事件发生频率增加的情况下进行洪水风险管理提供了有效的指导。
Flood disasters are one of the most destructive hazards faced across the globe, and thus flood hazard analysis is an essential factor for flood management. Due to the randomness and fuzziness of flood hazard, a series of possibilities is required for a certain flood level rather than just one exact probability. As a method for fuzzy hazard analysis derived from the information diffusion theory, the Interior-Outer-Set Model (IOSM) has the potential to reflect the randomness and fuzziness of flood hazard, however, the controlling intervals might have no sample points particularly when there are extraordinarily large flood peak flows or the flood samples concentrate. Based on this, the current study proposes a new framework for flood hazard analysis. First, flood samples are extracted from daily observed peak flow data. Second, the traditional IOSM is improved using design peak flows from flood frequency analysis (FFA) as the controlling points. From this, probability and floods hazard values are estimated via the FFA based IOSM (FFA-IOSM).The proposed framework is applied using data from the Dongjiang River, South China. Results demonstrate that the estimated flood probability was able to more effectively reflect the randomness and fuzziness of flood hazard compared to the traditional IOSM. This study provides a basis for reasonable flood engineering practices and supports the government with effective guidance on flood risk management, particularly under the increasing frequencies of the extreme precipitation events.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
ZADEH, LA
通讯作者：
ZADEH, LA
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
D. Wyncoll;B. Gouldby
通讯作者：
D. Wyncoll;B. Gouldby
DOI：
10.1049/pbpo161e_ch3
发表时间：
2021-07
期刊：
Artificial Intelligence for Smarter Power Systems: Fuzzy logic and neural networks
影响因子：
--
作者：
通讯作者：
--
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
S. Solari;Marta Egüen;M. Polo;M. Losada
通讯作者：
S. Solari;Marta Egüen;M. Polo;M. Losada
DOI：
10.1007/s00477-018-1526-0
发表时间：
2018-03
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Yanhu He;Jie Yang;Xiaohong Chen
通讯作者：
Yanhu He;Jie Yang;Xiaohong Chen