The robustness of future changes in Northern Hemisphere blocking: A large ensemble projection with multiple sea surface temperature patterns
The robustness of future changes in Northern Hemisphere blocking: A large ensemble projection with multiple sea surface temperature patterns
复制标题
北半球阻塞未来变化的稳健性：具有多种海面温度模式的大型集合投影
DOI：
10.1002/2017gl073336
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
H. Endo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Matsueda;H. Endo
通过大型集合模拟，使用 60 公里网状大气环流模型来研究北半球阻塞频率的未来变化，该模型规定了从 4 K 温暖气候下最先进的气候模型得出的六种未来海面温度模式。我们的模拟显示，欧洲-大西洋地区冬季阻塞频率从 16.6% ± 0.7% 下降到 13.1% ± 2.1%，太平洋地区从 17.4% ± 0.7% 下降到 14.8% ± 2.4%。频率的下降预计会影响所有持续时间的欧洲大西洋封锁和持续时间超过 15 天的太平洋封锁。在夏季，我们的模拟不仅表现出欧洲-大西洋阻塞频率的强劲下降（从 10.7% ± 0.4% 到 7.6% ± 0.7%），而且还表明，对于较长时间的阻塞，下降幅度较小。相比之下，太平洋阻塞频率要么没有变化，要么略有增加，特别是对于持续时间为 15-29 天的事件。
Future changes in the frequency of Northern Hemisphere blocking are investigated via large ensemble simulations using a 60 km mesh atmospheric general circulation model prescribed with six future sea surface temperature patterns derived from state‐of‐the‐art climate models under a 4 K warmer climate. Our simulations depict the frequency of wintertime blocking decreasing from 16.6% ± 0.7% to 13.1% ± 2.1% in the Euro‐Atlantic sector and from 17.4% ± 0.7% to 14.8% ± 2.4% in the Pacific sector. This decline in frequency is seen to affect Euro‐Atlantic blocking of all durations and Pacific blocking of more than 15 days' duration. During summer, our simulations not only exhibit a robust decrease (from 10.7% ± 0.4% to 7.6% ± 0.7%) in the Euro‐Atlantic blocking frequency but also show that the magnitude of this decrease is smaller for longer‐lived blocking. In contrast, the Pacific blocking frequency either does not change or increases slightly, particularly for events of 15–29 days' duration.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
G. Masato;B. Hoskins;T. Woollings
通讯作者：
G. Masato;B. Hoskins;T. Woollings