Indirect Effects of Binary Typhoons on an Extreme Rainfall Event in Henan Province, China From 19 to 21 July 2021: 1. Ensemble‐Based Analysis
Indirect Effects of Binary Typhoons on an Extreme Rainfall Event in Henan Province, China From 19 to 21 July 2021: 1. Ensemble‐Based Analysis
复制标题
双台风对2021年7月19日至21日中国河南省一次极端降雨事件的间接影响：1.基于集合的分析
DOI：
10.1029/2021jd036265
复制
发表时间：
2022-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Xu Xiangde
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xu Hongxiong;Duan Yihong;Xu Xiangde
2021年7月19日至21日的极端降雨造成了大规模洪水和生命损失，是中国中部河南省发生的第二大降雨。为了确定控制此次降雨事件的关键因素，我们利用ECMWF业务全球集合预报进行了基于集合的分析。极端降水预报分布较大，总体平均降水偏差较大，预报存在不确定性。极端降水与黄淮气旋和偏南、偏东南气流密切相关。虽然对东南气流的影响不大，但台风“台风”和“台风”的不确定性和可预测性可能导致了南风气流的变化和黄淮气旋的维持，从而决定了这次极端事件在集合预报模式中的降水量。当台风“in -fa”位于更西北方向时，台风“in -fa”和“Cempaka”二元相互作用产生的偏东北气流减弱了偏南风的强度，减少了向暴雨区输送水汽，减弱了黄淮气旋，使控制区降水减少。研究结果表明，基于集合的分析可以提高我们对多个远程热带气旋影响下的极端降水事件的认识和预测。
The extreme rainfall from 19 to 21 July 2021, which caused massive flooding and loss of life, is the second heaviest rainfall that has occurred in Henan province, central China. To identify the key factors controlling this rainfall event, we conducted an ensemble-based analysis using ECMWF operational global ensemble forecasts. The forecasts of extreme rainfall had a relatively large spread and there was a large bias in the ensemble mean precipitation, indicating uncertainties in the forecast. The extreme rainfall was closely related to the Huang-Huai cyclone and the southerly and southeasterly flows. Although they had little influence on the southeasterly flow, the uncertainty and predictability of typhoons In-fa and Cempaka probably caused the variation in the southerly flow and the maintenance of the Huang-Huai cyclone, which determined the amount of precipitation for this extreme event in the ensemble forecast model. When typhoon In-fa was located further northwest, the northeasterly airflow generated by the binary interaction between typhoons In-fa and Cempaka weakened the intensity of the southerly flow, reduced the transport of water vapor to the rainstorm area and weakened the Huang-Huai cyclone, thus reducing precipitation in the control area. The results of this study indicate that ensemble-based analysis can improve our understanding and forecasting of extreme precipitation events under the influence of multiple remote tropical cyclones.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
R. Rotunno;R. Houze
通讯作者：
R. Rotunno;R. Houze
中国南方季风降雨实验（SCMREX）
DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-15-00235.1
发表时间：
2017-05
期刊：
The Global Monsoon System, IV, a WMO Quadrennial Review
影响因子：
--
作者：
罗亚丽;宝兴华;汪会;夏茹娣;刘黎平等
通讯作者：
刘黎平等
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
W. Jang;H. Chun
通讯作者：
W. Jang;H. Chun
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Thomas J. Galarneau;L. Bosart;R. Schumacher
通讯作者：
Thomas J. Galarneau;L. Bosart;R. Schumacher
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Chung‐Chieh Wang;F. Chien;Sahana Paul;Dong In Lee;Chuang Yu Pi
通讯作者：
Chung‐Chieh Wang;F. Chien;Sahana Paul;Dong In Lee;Chuang Yu Pi