Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas
Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas
复制标题
气候变化对区域海洋初级生产的潜在影响：欧洲五个海洋的比较分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.pocean.2015.11.004
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Holt J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Holt J
区域海洋极易受到气候变化的影响，但却是海洋环境中对社会最直接重要的区域。混合、强迫、地理（海岸线和测深）和暴露于公海等各种条件的结合使这些海洋受到广泛的物理过程的影响，这些过程调节了大规模气候变化对这些海洋生态系统的影响。在本文中，我们探讨了五个区域海域通过大气、海洋和陆地向量对未来潜在气候变化的响应。这些区域包括巴伦支海、黑海、波罗的海、北海、凯尔特海，并与东北大西洋地区形成对比。我们的目标是阐明控制动力过程以及这些过程在这些海洋之间和内部如何变化。我们专注于初级生产，并考虑潜在的气候影响：元素预算的长期变化、控制浮游植物暴露于光和营养物的季节性和中尺度过程，以及简单的直接温度响应。我们从 MEECE FP7 项目和五个区域模型系统中抽取示例，每个系统都使用通用的全球地球系统模型作为强迫。我们考虑一种通用的分析方法和额外的敏感性实验。将 21 世纪末的预测与当前的平均条件进行比较，这些模拟通常显示季节性和永久分层（如果存在）的增加。然而，除东北大西洋外，在公海预测中，永久分层增加导致营养水平降低，从而导致初级生产力减少的第一级（低纬度和中纬度）效应基本上不存在。即使在我们考虑的两个高度分层的深水海域（黑海和波罗的海），分层的增加也不被视为对初级生产的首要控制。相反，结果显示了由多种物理驱动因素的复杂组合引起的积极和消极变化的高度异质性图景，包括混合、环流和温度的变化，这些变化通过平流作用在局部和非局部。
Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments.Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Corinna Schrum;U. Hübner;Daniela Jacob;R. Podzun
通讯作者：
Corinna Schrum;U. Hübner;Daniela Jacob;R. Podzun
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Blackford, JC;Allen, JI;Gilbert, FJ
通讯作者：
Gilbert, FJ
不同海域物理强迫下浮游植物动态的遥感研究
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
N. Nezlin;Y. Afanasyev;A. Ginzburg;A. Kostianoy
通讯作者：
A. Kostianoy
使用耦合区域冰海模型对巴伦支海的海气交换进行建模。
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Schrum;I. Harms;K. Hatten
通讯作者：
K. Hatten
爱尔兰海温度和盐度长期变化的预测和分析
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
E. Young;J. Holt
通讯作者：
J. Holt