Present and future relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO: Results of CMIP5
Present and future relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO: Results of CMIP5
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东亚冬季风与 ENSO 之间的当前和未来关系：CMIP5 的结果
DOI：
10.1002/jgrc.20332
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发表时间：
2013-10
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Liu Jiping
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wang Huijun;He Shengping;Liu Jiping
东亚冬季风（EAWM）是冬季影响东亚地区的寒潮活动的关键指标，而厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是EAWM季节预报的主要预报因子之一，尽管它们之间的关系一直被认为是不稳定的。本研究评估了耦合模式相互比较项目第五阶段（CMIP 5）中30个最先进的气候模式再现20世纪70年代中期ENSO-EAWM关系减弱的能力，并在RCP 4. 5情景下进一步讨论了21世纪世纪ENSO-EAWM关系。对基于20世纪CMIP 5模拟的气候模式的评估表明，30个气候模式中有10个能够再现1950-2003年期间ENSO-EAWM关系的总体年代际变化。然而，ENSO-EAWM关系的时间演变很难被大多数模式捕捉到。有三个CMIP 5模式（CCSM 4，GFDL-CM 3和MPI-ESM-LR）可以很好地捕捉到1976年前后ENSO-EAWM关系的持续减弱。根据三个CMIP 5模式的模拟，ENSO-EAWM的联系在短期内（2016-2046年）趋于增强，然后减弱，在2047-2067年期间几乎不显着。最后，ENSO-EAWM的联系似乎在2068-2099年期间基本恢复，但比2016-2046年期间弱。在模式模拟的基础上，我们还分析了太平洋-亚洲-北极地区的相关过程。结果表明，世纪ENSO和北极涛动对东亚夏季风的影响之间存在着一种跷跷板关系。
The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is the key indicator for the cold surge activities, influencing East Asia during winter, and the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the major predictors for the EAWM seasonal forecast, although their relationship has been thought to be unstable. This study evaluated the capability of 30 state‐of‐the‐art climate models among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in reproducing the weakening of ENSO‐EAWM relationship around the mid‐1970s and discussed further the ENSO‐EAWM relationship in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 scenario. Evaluation of climate models based on the CMIP5 simulations of the 20th century indicates that 10 out of 30 climate models are capable to reproduce the overall interdecadal shift of the ENSO‐EAWM relationship during 1950–2003. However, the temporal evolution of the ENSO‐EAWM relationship is difficult to be captured by most models. There are three CMIP5 models (CCSM4, GFDL‐CM3, and MPI‐ESM‐LR) that can well capture the continuous weakening of the ENSO‐EAWM relationship around 1976. Based on the three CMIP5 models' simulations, the ENSO‐EAWM connection tends to be enhanced in the near term (2016–2046), then weakened, and barely significant during 2047–2067. Finally, the ENSO‐EAWM connection appears to largely recover during 2068–2099 but be weaker than that during 2016–2046. We also analyzed the associated processes in the Pacific‐Asia‐Arctic areas based on the model simulations. It is indicated that there seems to be a seesaw relationship between the ENSO's impact and the influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the EAWM during the 21st century.
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影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Huijun Wang;Jianqi Sun
通讯作者：
Huijun Wang;Jianqi Sun
20世纪80年代中期以后东北地区降雪量增加
影响因子：
--
作者：
Wang HuiJun;He ShengPing
通讯作者：
He ShengPing
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
E. Kalnay;A. Dalcher
通讯作者：
E. Kalnay;A. Dalcher
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Huijun Wang
通讯作者：
Huijun Wang
影响因子：
--
作者：
Jian Sun;Huijun Wang
通讯作者：
Jian Sun;Huijun Wang