Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees.
Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees.
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DOI：
10.1186/1741-7015-9-87
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发表时间：
2011-07-19
期刊：
影响因子：
9.3
通讯作者：
Vanhems P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stehlé J;Voirin N;Barrat A;Cattuto C;Colizza V;Isella L;Régis C;Pinton JF;Khanafer N;Van den Broeck W;Vanhems P
传染病的传播在很大程度上取决于人与人之间的接触模式。因此，这些模式的知识是必不可少的通知模型和计算工作。然而，很少有实证研究提供社会群体之间接触的数量和持续时间的估计。此外，它们的空间和时间分辨率有限，因此数据在人与人之间的层次上不明确，接触的动态性质被忽视。在这项研究中，我们的目的是评估个人之间的数据驱动的动态接触模式的作用，特别是他们的时间方面，在塑造人口中的模拟流行病的传播。我们考虑了会议与会者之间面对面互动的高分辨率数据，这些数据是从基于射频识别（RFID）设备的基础设施部署中获得的，该设备评估了相互面对面的接近度。流行病的传播沿着这些相互作用进行了模拟使用SEIR（易感，暴露，传染，隔离）模型，使用由收集的数据定义的动态网络的接触，和这样的网络的两个聚合版本，以评估数据的时间方面的作用。我们发现，在所考虑的时间尺度上，考虑到接触的每日持续时间的聚合网络是全分辨率网络的一个很好的近似，而仅保留接触网络拓扑结构的同质表示无法再现流行病的规模。这些结果对于理解正确告知用于真实的流行病的研究和管理的计算模型所需的细节水平具有重要意义。请参阅相关文章BMC Medicine，2011，9：88
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts between individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. However, there are few empirical studies available that provide estimates of the number and duration of contacts between social groups. Moreover, their space and time resolutions are limited, so that data are not explicit at the person-to-person level, and the dynamic nature of the contacts is disregarded. In this study, we aimed to assess the role of data-driven dynamic contact patterns between individuals, and in particular of their temporal aspects, in shaping the spread of a simulated epidemic in the population. We considered high-resolution data about face-to-face interactions between the attendees at a conference, obtained from the deployment of an infrastructure based on radiofrequency identification (RFID) devices that assessed mutual face-to-face proximity. The spread of epidemics along these interactions was simulated using an SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, using both the dynamic network of contacts defined by the collected data, and two aggregated versions of such networks, to assess the role of the data temporal aspects. We show that, on the timescales considered, an aggregated network taking into account the daily duration of contacts is a good approximation to the full resolution network, whereas a homogeneous representation that retains only the topology of the contact network fails to reproduce the size of the epidemic. These results have important implications for understanding the level of detail needed to correctly inform computational models for the study and management of real epidemics. Please see related article BMC Medicine, 2011, 9:88
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0906910106
发表时间：
2009-12-22
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Balcan, Duygu;Colizza, Vittoria;Vespignani, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro
DOI：
10.1126/science.1167742
发表时间：
2009-02-06
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
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作者：
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Van Alstyne M
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1997.0131
发表时间：
1997-07-22
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Edmunds, WJ;OCallaghan, CJ;Nokes, DJ
通讯作者：
Nokes, DJ
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0610245104
发表时间：
2007-05-01
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Onnela, J.-P.;Saramaki, J.;Barabasi, A.-L.
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影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Eames, K. T. D.
通讯作者：
Eames, K. T. D.