Model hierarchies in edge-based compartmental modeling for infectious disease spread.

Model hierarchies in edge-based compartmental modeling for infectious disease spread.
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DOI:
10.1007/s00285-012-0572-3
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发表时间:
2013-10
影响因子:
1.9
通讯作者:
Volz, Erik M.
Volz, Erik M.
中科院分区:
数学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Miller, Joel C.;Volz, Erik M.

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我们认为家庭的边缘为基础的流行病传播的房室模型。这些模型允许一系列复杂的行为,特别是允许我们明确地将接触的持续时间纳入我们的数学模型。我们的重点是确定条件下,更简单的模型可以取代更详细的模型,并在这样做,我们定义了一个层次的流行病模型。特别是,我们提供的条件下,它是适当的使用标准的质量作用SIR模型,我们会发生什么,当这些条件失败。使用我们的层次结构,我们提供了一个程序,导致选择适当的模型为给定的人口。我们关于模型收敛到质量作用模型的结果给出了质量作用模型准确的明确、严格的条件。
We consider the family of edge-based compartmental models for epidemic spread developed in. These models allow for a range of complex behaviors, and in particular allow us to explicitly incorporate duration of a contact into our mathematical models. Our focus here is to identify conditions under which simpler models may be substituted for more detailed models, and in so doing we define a hierarchy of epidemic models. In particular we provide conditions under which it is appropriate to use the standard mass action SIR model, and we show what happens when these conditions fail. Using our hierarchy, we provide a procedure leading to the choice of the appropriate model for a given population. Our result about the convergence of models to the Mass Action model gives clear, rigorous conditions under which the Mass Action model is accurate.
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