Projection of surface water resources in the context of climate change in typical regions of China
Projection of surface water resources in the context of climate change in typical regions of China
复制标题
气候变化背景下中国典型地区地表水资源预测
DOI：
10.1080/02626667.2016.1222531
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发表时间：
2017-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Yong Yuan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhe Yuan;Denghua Yan;Zhiyong Yang;Jun Yin;Cheng Zhang;Yong Yuan
气候变化及其对水文过程的影响是水资源可持续管理面临的首要问题。在气候变化的背景下，对中国典型地区的地表水资源进行了预测。建立了基于傅氏有理函数方程的水量平衡模型，对未来天然径流量进行定量计算。利用中国10个一级水资源区13个水文站的资料对模型进行了率定。未来的降水和温度序列来自ISI-MIP（跨部门影响模型相互比较项目）气候数据集。以1961-1990年的天然径流为基准，研究了RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种排放情景下气候变化对天然径流的影响。模拟结果表明，中国北方干旱半干旱区对气候变化的敏感性高于南方湿润半湿润区。在未来一段时间内（2011-2050年），我国大部分地区（除辽中、道界坝流域外）地表水资源量将减少，特别是海河流域和长江中游地区。我国北方地区地表水资源减少量大于南方地区。2011-2030年和2031-2050年，中国北方地区地表水资源量将减少12-13%，南方地区地表水资源量将减少7- 10%。编辑D. Koutsoyiannis助理编辑R.赫希
ABSTRACT Climate change and its impact on hydrological processes are overarching issues that have brought challenges for sustainable water resources management. In this study, surface water resources in typical regions of China are projected in the context of climate change. A water balance model based on the Fu rational function equation is established to quantify future natural runoff. The model is calibrated using data from 13 hydrological stations in 10 first-class water resources zones of China. The future precipitation and temperature series come from the ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) climate dataset. Taking natural runoff for 1961–1990 as a baseline, the impacts of climate change on natural runoff are studied under three emissions scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulated results indicate that the arid and semi-arid region in the northern part of China is more sensitive to climate change compared to the humid and semi-humid region in the south. In the near future (2011–2050), surface water resources will decrease in most parts of China (except for the Liaozhong and Daojieba catchments), especially in the Haihe River Basin and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The decrement of surface water resources in the northern part of China is more than that in the southern part. For the periods 2011–2030 and 2031–2050, surface water resources are expected to decrease by 12–13% in the northern part of China, while those in the southern part will decrease by 7–10%. EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch
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影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Wei Ke;Chen Wen
通讯作者：
Chen Wen
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
B. Narsimlu;A. Gosain;B. R. Chahar
通讯作者：
B. Narsimlu;A. Gosain;B. R. Chahar
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
R. Wilby
通讯作者：
R. Wilby
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1312330110
发表时间：
2014-03-04
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Warszawski, Lila;Frieler, Katja;Schewe, Jacob
通讯作者：
Schewe, Jacob
DOI：
10.1525/9780520943933-008
发表时间：
2019-12
期刊：
Earth under Fire
影响因子：
--
作者：
P. Gleick
通讯作者：
P. Gleick