Estimating the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and baseflow in the upper Ssezibwa catchment, Uganda
Estimating the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and baseflow in the upper Ssezibwa catchment, Uganda
复制标题
估算气候变化对乌干达塞济布瓦上游流域地下水补给和基流的影响
DOI：
10.1623/hysj.54.4.713
复制
发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
O. Batelaan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Nyenje;O. Batelaan
摘要研究了气候变化对乌干达Ssezibwa流域上游地下水补给和基流的影响。该研究首先检查了历史数据，这些数据确实揭示了基于温度和排放趋势的气候变化证据。对于气候变化研究，统计降尺度模型（SDSM）被用来降低未来气候变化情景的尺度，这些情景是从英国HadCM 3气候模式中获得的。尺度缩小的气候被用作输入的WetSpa水文模型，一个物理分布的径流模型，这是用来模拟由此产生的水文变化。尺度缩小的气候显示，雨季（3月至5月; 6月至12月）的降水量增加，从2020年代的30%到2080年代的100%以上。相应的温度上升范围在1至4°C之间。这些变化表明，引起加剧的水文循环。目前的年平均日基流为157毫米/年（占流量的69%），预计在2020年代至2080年代期间将增加20-80%。从目前的245毫米/年，相应的补给增加范围从20%到100%。研究结果为进一步研究气候数据的降尺度和模拟流域水文变化的敏感性分析提供了基础。
Abstract The effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and baseflow in the upper Ssezibwa catchment, Uganda, are investigated. The study first examines historical data, which indeed reveal evidence of climate change based on trends observed in temperature and discharge. For the climate change study, the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is used to downscale future climate change scenarios, which were obtained from the UK HadCM3 climate model. The downscaled climate is used as input to the WetSpa hydrological model, a physically-distributed rainfall—runoff model, which was used to simulate the resulting hydrological changes. Downscaled climate shows an increase in precipitation in the wet seasons (March—May; October—December) ranging from 30% in the 2020s to over 100% in the 2080s. The corresponding rise in temperature ranges between 1 and 4°C. These changes are shown to give rise to intensification of the hydrological cycle. The mean annual daily baseflow for the current period of 157 mm/year (69% of discharge), is expected to increase by 20–80% between the 2020s and 2080s. The corresponding increase in recharge ranges from 20 to 100% from the current 245mm/year. The findings provide a basis for further research in the downscaling of climate data and sensitivity analysis for simulated hydrological changes in the catchment.
影响因子：
14.6
作者：
Martijn Gough
通讯作者：
Martijn Gough