Risk Prediction Score for Pediatric Patients with Suspected Ebola Virus Disease.

Risk Prediction Score for Pediatric Patients with Suspected Ebola Virus Disease.
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DOI:
10.3201/eid2806.212265
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发表时间:
2022-06
影响因子:
11.8
通讯作者:
Michelow, Ian C.
Michelow, Ian C.
中科院分区:
医学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Genisca, Alicia E.;Chu, Tzu-Chun;Huang, Lawrence;Gainey, Monique;Adeniji, Moyinoluwa;Mbong, Eta N.;Kennedy, Stephen B.;Laghari, Razia;Nganga, Fiston;Muhayangabo, Rigo F.;Vaishnav, Himanshu;Perera, Shiromi M.;Colubri, Andres;Levine, Adam C.;Michelow, Ian C.

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需要针对埃博拉病毒病(EVD)儿童的快速诊断工具,以加快隔离和治疗。为了评估预测性诊断工具,我们检查了来自西非国际医疗队埃博拉治疗中心的回顾数据(2014-2015)。我们将统计得出的候选预测因素纳入了7分的儿科埃博拉风险评分。出血或已知或未知接触埃博拉病毒的证据与埃博拉病毒诊断呈正相关,而腹痛呈负相关。曲线下面积(AUC)的模型判别率(AUC)为0.87,高于世界卫生组织标准(AUC 0.56)。使用2018-2019年刚果民主共和国国际医疗队埃博拉治疗中心的数据进行的外部验证显示,AUC为0.70。外部验证表明,使用世界卫生组织标准实现的歧视是相似的;然而,儿科埃博拉风险评分更容易使用。
Rapid diagnostic tools for children with Ebola virus disease (EVD) are needed to expedite isolation and treatment. To evaluate a predictive diagnostic tool, we examined retrospective data (2014–2015) from the International Medical Corps Ebola Treatment Centers in West Africa. We incorporated statistically derived candidate predictors into a 7-point Pediatric Ebola Risk Score. Evidence of bleeding or having known or no known Ebola contacts was positively associated with an EVD diagnosis, whereas abdominal pain was negatively associated. Model discrimination using area under the curve (AUC) was 0.87, which outperforms the World Health Organization criteria (AUC 0.56). External validation, performed by using data from International Medical Corps Ebola Treatment Centers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo during 2018–2019, showed an AUC of 0.70. External validation showed that discrimination achieved by using World Health Organization criteria was similar; however, the Pediatric Ebola Risk Score is simpler to use.
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