Probabilistic framework for evaluating food security of households in the aftermath of a disaster
Probabilistic framework for evaluating food security of households in the aftermath of a disaster
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评估灾后家庭粮食安全的概率框架
DOI：
10.1080/15732479.2019.1584824
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Perez, Maria
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nozhati, Saeed;Rosenheim, Nathanael;Ellingwood, Bruce R.;Mahmoud, Hussam;Perez, Maria
对于所有收入水平的家庭，特别是那些粮食无保障的家庭，粮食供应可能受到自然灾害的威胁。极端的自然灾害会破坏关键的基础设施系统，如交通或电力网络，破坏对食品供应链或为食品保鲜提供电力的输电线路至关重要的道路和桥梁。食品供应链中基础设施系统之间的相互依赖性使其容易受到意外和连锁后果的影响。在自然灾害发生后维持粮食安全对社区的复原力、恢复和社会福祉提出了挑战。本研究介绍了一种方法来考虑民用基础设施系统之间的相互联系如何影响城市居民的粮食安全。为此，不同的基础设施系统沿着其空间分布进行建模，以评估恢复社区内的粮食安全。粮食安全指标，包括粮食供应，可获得性和可负担性，被定义和量化，以在极端自然灾害发生后为政策制定者提供风险知情的决策支持。本文提出的考虑系统相互关联性和供需不确定性的方法可用于确定实际的政策干预措施，以加速粮食系统的恢复并减少粮食不安全对社区的不利影响。
For households of all income levels, and especially for those that are food insecure, food access can be threatened by natural hazards. Extreme natural hazards can disrupt critical infrastructure systems, such as the transportation or electrical power networks, damaging the roads and bridges critical for food supply chains or electrical transmission lines providing electricity for food preservation. Interdependencies among infrastructure systems within the food supply chain make it vulnerable to unanticipated and cascading consequences. Maintaining food security in the aftermath of a natural hazard challenges a community’s resilience, recovery, and social well-being. This study introduces a methodology to consider how the interconnectedness among civil infrastructure systems impacts food-security of urban inhabitants. To this end, different infrastructure systems along with their spatial distribution are modeled to evaluate the restoration of food security within a community. Food security metrics, including food availability, accessibility, and affordability, are defined and quantified to provide risk-informed decision support to policymakers in the aftermath of an extreme natural hazard. The methodology proposed herein that considers system interconnectedness and uncertainties in demand and supply can be applied to identify practical policy interventions to hasten recovery of food systems and reduce the adverse impacts of food-insecurity on a community.
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