Confidence and Investors' Reliance on Disciplined Trading Strategies
Confidence and Investors' Reliance on Disciplined Trading Strategies
复制标题
信心和投资者对纪律交易策略的依赖
DOI：
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Bloomfield
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Nelson;Susan D. Krische;R. Bloomfield
大量的档案文件表明，投资者可以通过遵循纪律严明的交易策略，利用市场对各种会计数据的不完全调整来赚取利润。即使假设证券没有错误定价的有效市场，有证据表明，个人和专业投资者都可以通过市场指数等纪律严明的交易策略来提高回报。然而，投资者很少遵循这种策略。我们使用两个实验来研究我们认为影响交易策略依赖的因素，这些因素影响投资者是否对自己的判断或交易策略的建议更有信心。我们发现，MBA学生投资者偏离交易策略时，战略是不太准确（但仍然比大多数知名的交易策略更准确），当他们交易个别证券，而不是投资组合，当他们收到积极的反馈，在了解策略之前作出的交易决策。因此，投资者可能缺乏依赖有利可图的交易策略的纪律，特别是当最近的交易成功增加了他们对自己判断的信心时（就像在过去十年经历的持续牛市中可能发生的那样）。我们的研究结果还表明，个人投资者和投资组合经理可以增加对有利可图的交易策略的依赖。
Numerous archival papers indicate that investors can generate profit by following disciplined trading strategies that exploit the market's incomplete adjustment for various accounting data. Even assuming efficient markets in which securities are not mispriced, evidence suggests that both individual and professional investors could improve their returns via disciplined trading strategies like market indexing. Yet, investors rarely follow such strategies. We use two experiments to examine factors that we believe affect reliance on trading strategies by affecting whether investors have more confidence in their own judgment or the recommendation of a trading strategy. We find that MBA-student investors deviate from a trading strategy more when the strategy is less accurate (but still more accurate than most well-known trading strategies), when they trade individual securities instead of portfolios, and when they receive positive feedback on trading decisions made prior to learning about the strategy. Thus, investors may lack the discipline to rely on profitable trading strategies, particularly when recent trading success has increased their confidence in their own judgment (as might occur in a sustained bull market like that experienced over the past decade). Our results also suggest ways that individual investors and portfolio managers can increase reliance on profitable trading strategies.
学习判断会受到编码类型的影响，而这种影响不能归因于回忆水平。
DOI：
10.1037//0278-7393.21.5.1263
发表时间：
1995
期刊：
Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition
影响因子：
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作者：
Mazzoni,G;Nelson,TO
通讯作者：
Nelson,TO