Managing dynamic epidemiological risks through trade.
Managing dynamic epidemiological risks through trade.
复制标题
通过贸易管理动态流行病学风险。
DOI：
10.1016/j.jedc.2015.02.005
复制
发表时间：
2015-04-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Wolf CA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Horan RD;Fenichel EP;Finnoff D;Wolf CA
人们越来越担心，贸易将地理上孤立的区域连接起来，无意中助长了入侵病原体和害虫的传播-这些生物污染形式对生态系统和人类健康构成重大风险。我们使用生物经济学框架来研究贸易是否总是增加私人风险，特别关注活动物贸易的病原体风险。当病原体已经建立，贸易商承担一些私人风险时，我们发现两个结果与传统的贸易智慧背道而驰。首先，库存中个别动物疾病状况的不确定性可能会增加相对于无病情况的贸易动机。第二，贸易可能有助于降低购买者中的长期疾病流行率。产生这些结果的原因是，由于涉及有价值库存的动态反馈过程，疾病风险是内生的，市场有助于管理生产者在有或没有贸易的情况下面临的私人风险。
There is growing concern that trade, by connecting geographically isolated regions, unintentionally facilitates the spread of invasive pathogens and pests – forms of biological pollution that pose significant risks to ecosystem and human health. We use a bioeconomic framework to examine whether trade always increases private risks, focusing specifically on pathogen risks from live animal trade. When the pathogens have already established and traders bear some private risk, we find two results that run counter to the conventional wisdom on trade. First, uncertainty about the disease status of individual animals held in inventory may increase the incentives to trade relative to the disease-free case. Second, trade may facilitate reduced long-run disease prevalence among buyers. These results arise because disease risks are endogenous due to dynamic feedback processes involving valuable inventories, and markets facilitate the management of private risks that producers face with or without trade.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
LUCAS, RE
通讯作者：
LUCAS, RE
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Begon, M;Bennett, M;Turner, J
通讯作者：
Turner, J
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.01006.x
发表时间：
2007-08-01
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Rich, Karl M.;Winter-Nelson, Alex
通讯作者：
Winter-Nelson, Alex
气候、植被、引进宿主和贸易塑造了全球野生动物大流行
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2012.2506
发表时间：
2013-02-22
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Liu, Xuan;Rohr, Jason R.;Li, Yiming
通讯作者：
Li, Yiming
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
CLARK, CW;CLARKE, FH;MUNRO, GR
通讯作者：
MUNRO, GR