Info-Gap Models for Optimal Multi-Year Management of Regional Water Resources Systems under Uncertainty
Info-Gap Models for Optimal Multi-Year Management of Regional Water Resources Systems under Uncertainty
复制标题
不确定性下区域水资源系统多年优化管理的信息差距模型
作者：
M. Housh;Tomer Aharon
在过去的几十年里，水资源系统（wss）规划和管理的共同做法受到了全球气候变化过程的挑战，全球气候变化过程在世界范围内的频率越来越高。气候变化表现为气候变率、温度升高以及干旱和洪水等极端事件，这些事件对自然资源的可用性产生决定性影响，进而对水质产生决定性影响。历史记录可能不足以可靠地解释气候变化条件下不确定的未来预测。虽然这种高度不确定的情况在世界范围内成为“正常”情况，但传统的概率风险度量方法不能用于适当量化非平稳条件下的不确定现象。为了更好地考虑不确定的未来条件，本研究的目的是建立一个基于信息差距决策理论（IGDT）的水管理模型，并在深度不确定性条件下进行优化。信息差距理论是一个框架，它通过量化对不确定性的稳健性来衡量对运营决策的信心，而不考虑任何概率数据。为了证明该方法作为一种工具，可以在不确定的未来条件下更好地指导供水系统的长期可持续运行，我们将信息缺口模型应用于加利利海（SoG）区域WSS，该区域是以色列国家水系统（INWS）的重要组成部分。以色列和其他中东半干旱地区一样，容易出现干旱和水资源有限的情况，人们有充分理由担心，由于全球气候变化进程，未来将出现长期干旱。本研究为深度不确定性下的决策提供了一种管理工具，以改善决策过程，更好地适应不可预测的不确定未来条件。我们演示了如何制定IGDT并使用它来分析不同设置下的wss，并演示了如何从IGDT公式中得出决策。我们还对得到的解进行了灵敏度分析。
The common practices for the planning and management of Water Resources Systems (WSSs) have been challenged in the last few decades by global climate change processes, which are observed around the world in increasing frequencies. Climate change is manifested by climate variability, temperature increase, and extreme events such as droughts and floods, which have a decisive effect on natural resource availability and in turn on water quality. Historical records may not be sufficient to reliably account for uncertain future predictions under climate change conditions. While such highly uncertain situations become the “normal” case worldwide, the traditional practices of probabilistic risk measures cannot be used to appropriately quantify the uncertain phenomena under non-stationarity conditions. To better account for uncertain future conditions, the objective of this study is to develop a water management model based on Info-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) using optimization under deep uncertainty conditions. The Info-Gap theory is a framework that measures the confidence in the operational decisions by quantifying the robustness to uncertainty without accounting for any probabilistic data. To demonstrate the method as a tool to better guide the long-term sustainable operation of the water supply system under uncertain future conditions, we applied the Info-Gap model to the Sea of Galilee (SoG) regional WSS, which is a significant part of the Israeli National Water System (INWS). For Israel, which is, like other Middle East semi-arid regions, prone to dry conditions and limited water availability, there are well-founded concerns that prolonged periods of drought lie ahead, as a consequence of the global climate change processes. This study contributes a management tool for decision making under deep uncertainty to improve the decision-making process and better adapt to unpredictable uncertain future conditions. We demonstrate how the IGDT could be formulated and used to analyze WSSs under different settings and demonstrate how decisions could be derived from the IGDT formulation. We also show a sensitivity analysis for the obtained solutions.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Matrosov, Evgenii S.;Woods, Ashley M.;Harou, Julien J.
通讯作者：
Harou, Julien J.
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
B. Korteling;S. Dessai;Z. Kapelan
通讯作者：
B. Korteling;S. Dessai;Z. Kapelan