Local and regional spread of chikungunya fever in the Americas.
Local and regional spread of chikungunya fever in the Americas.
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DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es2014.19.28.20854
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发表时间：
2014-07-17
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Boëlle PY
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cauchemez S;Ledrans M;Poletto C;Quenel P;de Valk H;Colizza V;Boëlle PY
基孔肯雅热（CHIKV）是一种由蚊子传播的病毒性疾病，目前正在影响加勒比的几个地区。病媒分布在从佛罗里达南部到巴西的美洲，就人口流动而言，加勒比地区是一个高度联系的区域。因此，这一流行病迅速扩大到美洲广大地区的风险很大。在此，我们描述了在前三个报告病例的地区以及该区域各地区之间的寨卡病毒传播情况。CHIKV在加勒比地区的本地传播非常有效，一个人间病例产生的平均病例数为2至4例。区域流行病具有强烈的空间特征，据估计，地区之间的传播风险与距离成反比，而不是由航空运输驱动。到目前为止，这个简单的基于距离的模型已经成功地预测了观察到的传播模式。空间结构允许根据入侵风险对区域进行排序。这种特征可能有助于国家和国际机构优化监测和控制的资源分配，并鼓励风险较高的地区采取行动。
Chikungunya fever (CHIKV), a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, is currently affecting several areas in the Caribbean. The vector is found in the Americas from southern Florida to Brazil, and the Caribbean is a highly connected region in terms of population movements. There is therefore a significant risk for the epidemic to quickly expand to a wide area in the Americas. Here, we describe the spread of CHIKV in the first three areas to report cases and between areas in the region. Local transmission of CHIKV in the Caribbean is very effective, the mean number of cases generated by a human case ranging from two to four. There is a strong spatial signature in the regional epidemic, with the risk of transmission between areas estimated to be inversely proportional to the distance rather than driven by air transportation. So far, this simple distance-based model has successfully predicted observed patterns of spread. The spatial structure allows ranking areas according to their risk of invasion. This characterisation may help national and international agencies to optimise resource allocation for monitoring and control and encourage areas with elevated risks to act.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0906910106
发表时间：
2009-12-22
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Balcan, Duygu;Colizza, Vittoria;Vespignani, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro
DOI：
10.1111/1467-985x.00125
发表时间：
1999-01-01
影响因子：
2
作者：
O'Neill, PD;Roberts, GO
通讯作者：
Roberts, GO
影响因子：
2
作者：
Cauchemez, S;Carrat, F;Boëlle, PY
通讯作者：
Boëlle, PY
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Yakob L;Clements AC
通讯作者：
Clements AC
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Boelle, P. -Y.;Thomas, G.;Flahault, A.
通讯作者：
Flahault, A.