Terrorist Group Behavior Prediction by Wavelet Transform-Based Pattern Recognition

Terrorist Group Behavior Prediction by Wavelet Transform-Based Pattern Recognition
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基于小波变换的模式识别的恐怖分子群体行为预测

DOI:
10.1155/2018/5676712
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发表时间:
2018-01
影响因子:
1.4
通讯作者:
Li Aobo
Li Aobo
中科院分区:
数学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Li Ze;Sun Duoyong;Li Bo;Li Zhanfeng;Li Aobo

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利用群体网络预测恐怖袭击是情报和安全信息学中的一个重要而又困难的问题。对行为的有效预测不仅有助于理解组织行为的动态,而且有助于国土安全部在预防、准备和应对恐怖行为方面的任务。恐怖组织具有一定的动态特征,如周期性特征、行为与网络的相关性等。在本文中,我们提出了一个综合的框架,结合社会网络分析,小波变换,模式识别方法来调查的动力学,并最终预测恐怖组织的攻击行为。我们的想法依赖于社会网络分析来建模的恐怖组织,并提取相关的群体行为特征。其次,基于小波变换,从两个方面对群网络(特征)进行预测和互检。最后,基于预测的网络,基于网络与行为之间的相关性来识别群体的行为。基地组织的数据进行了调查与建议的框架,以显示我们的方法的力量。结果表明,该框架具有较高的准确性,对预测恐怖组织的行为具有实用价值。
Predicting terrorist attacks by group networks is an important but difficult issue in intelligence and security informatics. Effective prediction of the behavior not only facilitates the understanding of the dynamics of organizational behaviors but also supports homeland security’s missions in prevention, preparedness, and response to terrorist acts. There are certain dynamic characteristics of terrorist groups, such as periodic features and correlations between the behavior and the network. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive framework that combines social network analysis, wavelet transform, and the pattern recognition approach to investigate the dynamics and eventually predict the attack behavior of terrorist group. Our ideas rely on social network analysis to model the terrorist group and extract relevant features for group behaviors. Next, based on wavelet transform, the group networks (features) are predicted and mutually checked from two aspects. Finally, based on the predicted network, the behavior of the group is recognized based on the correlation between the network and behavior. The Al-Qaeda data are investigated with the proposed framework to show the strength of our approaches. The results show that the proposed framework is highly accurate and is of practical value in predicting the behavior of terrorist groups.
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