Inflation expectations and consumer spending: the role of household balance sheets
Inflation expectations and consumer spending: the role of household balance sheets
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通货膨胀预期和消费者支出：家庭资产负债表的作用
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Johannes Schuffels
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Lieb;Johannes Schuffels
近年来，由于中央银行努力通过引导通胀预期来刺激需求，对消费对预期通胀的反应的研究兴趣有所增加。我们通过分析家庭资产负债表的各个组成部分是否决定了消费对预期通胀的反应，为这一文献做出了贡献。特别是可以设想两个渠道：通货膨胀预期的增加可以通过预期真实的财富的直接增加来提高消费，例如对于有名义金融负债的家庭。通过影响真实的利率，预期通货膨胀可以与财富相互作用，只要这些家庭能够使他们的消费适应当前的真实的利率，而当前的利率不受通货膨胀的约束，也不具有足够的流动性来在消费和储蓄之间转移资金。我们调查这些渠道实证使用家庭层面的信息资产负债表，耐用消费和通货膨胀预期从荷兰中央银行的家庭调查。我们发现，在风险资产的投资，以及净资产缓和预期通货膨胀和持久性支出决策之间的关系。资产净值效应在固定利率抵押贷款的家庭中最为明显。
Research interest in the reaction of consumption to expected inflation has increased in recent years due to efforts by central banks to kick-start demand by steering inflation expectations. We contribute to this literature by analysing whether various components of households’ balance sheets determine how consumption reacts to expected inflation. Two channels in particular are conceivable: an increase in inflation expectations can raise consumption through direct increases in expected real wealth, e.g. for households with nominal financial liabilities. By affecting the real interest rate, expected inflation can interact with wealth if only those households can adapt their consumption to current real interest rates that are not budget-constrained or sufficiently liquid to shift funds between consumption and savings. We investigate these channels empirically using household-level information on balance sheets, durable consumption and inflation expectations from the Dutch Central Bank’s Household Survey. We find that investments in risky assets as well as net worth moderates the relation between expected inflation and durable spending decisions. The net worth effect is most pronounced for households with fixed interest rate mortgages.
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Coibion, Olivier;Gorodnichenko, Yuriy;Weber, Michael
通讯作者：
Weber, Michael