Child mortality estimation: accelerated progress in reducing global child mortality, 1990-2010.
Child mortality estimation: accelerated progress in reducing global child mortality, 1990-2010.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pmed.1001303
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
15.8
通讯作者：
Technical Advisory Group of United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hill K;You D;Inoue M;Oestergaard MZ;Technical Advisory Group of United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation
Kenneth Hill及其同事介绍了联合国儿童死亡率估算机构间小组的最新估算结果，总结了这些估算的主要结果，并介绍了目前的方法和最近的方法创新。监测发展指标已成为国际机构和各国追踪实现千年发展目标进展情况的一个核心兴趣。在这篇综述中，我们介绍了联合国儿童死亡率估算机构间小组使用的方法，以跟踪千年发展目标4的关键指标-五岁以下儿童死亡率的下降-的国别变化（出生到5岁之间的死亡概率，在文献中也表示为五岁以下死亡率和5 q 0）。我们回顾了如何从民事登记，抽样登记，人口普查和家庭调查的相关数据汇编和评估联合国会员国，以及如何时间序列回归模型拟合到所有可接受的质量点，以建立在U 5 MR的趋势，婴儿和新生儿死亡率通常来自。采用这一方法后发现，1990年至2010年期间，全球五岁以下幼儿死亡率从每千名活产88例下降到57例，五岁以下幼儿年死亡人数从1 200万下降到760万。虽然五岁以下儿童死亡率的年下降率从1990-2000年期间的1.9%加快到2000-2010年期间的2.5%，但仍远低于实现千年发展目标4到2015年将五岁以下儿童死亡率从1990年的值减少三分之二的目标所需的4.4%的年下降率。因此，尽管全世界在降低儿童死亡率方面取得了进展，而且过去二十年来下降速度加快，令人鼓舞，但如果不大力加强降低儿童死亡率的努力，千年发展目标4就无法实现。
Kenneth Hill and colleagues provide an introductory overview of how the latest United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation estimates were produced, summarizes the key findings of these estimates and describe current methodology and recent methodological innovations. Monitoring development indicators has become a central interest of international agencies and countries for tracking progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. In this review, which also provides an introduction to a collection of articles, we describe the methodology used by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to track country-specific changes in the key indicator for Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), the decline of the under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age five, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and 5 q 0). We review how relevant data from civil registration, sample registration, population censuses, and household surveys are compiled and assessed for United Nations member states, and how time series regression models are fitted to all points of acceptable quality to establish the trends in U5MR from which infant and neonatal mortality rates are generally derived. The application of this methodology indicates that, between 1990 and 2010, the global U5MR fell from 88 to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births, and the annual number of under-five deaths fell from 12.0 to 7.6 million. Although the annual rate of reduction in the U5MR accelerated from 1.9% for the period 1990–2000 to 2.5% for the period 2000–2010, it remains well below the 4.4% annual rate of reduction required to achieve the MDG 4 goal of a two-thirds reduction in U5MR from its 1990 value by 2015. Thus, despite progress in reducing child mortality worldwide, and an encouraging increase in the pace of decline over the last two decades, MDG 4 will not be met without greatly increasing efforts to reduce child deaths.
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