Computational modelling for decision-making: where, why, what, who and how.
Computational modelling for decision-making: where, why, what, who and how.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.172096
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发表时间：
2018-06
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Wilson A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Calder M;Craig C;Culley D;de Cani R;Donnelly CA;Douglas R;Edmonds B;Gascoigne J;Gilbert N;Hargrove C;Hinds D;Lane DC;Mitchell D;Pavey G;Robertson D;Rosewell B;Sherwin S;Walport M;Wilson A
为了应对日益复杂的世界，我们需要更复杂的计算模型，帮助我们明智地做出决策，并了解选择的潜在后果。但是创建模型需要的不仅仅是原始数据和技术技能：它需要模型专员、开发人员、用户和评审人员之间的密切合作。良好的模型要求其用户和专员更多地了解整个过程，包括模型可能具有的不同目的和不同的技术基础。本文为从公共政策到科学和工程的广泛领域的委托，开发和部署模型的过程提供了指南。它提供了两个核对表，以帮助潜在的建模者、专员和用户确保他们考虑了决定成功的最重要因素。我们的结论是，有必要加强建模作为一门学科，使误解的可能性较小;增加对建模在所有领域的理解，使模型的滥用减少;并使专员更接近建模，使结果更有用。
In order to deal with an increasingly complex world, we need ever more sophisticated computational models that can help us make decisions wisely and understand the potential consequences of choices. But creating a model requires far more than just raw data and technical skills: it requires a close collaboration between model commissioners, developers, users and reviewers. Good modelling requires its users and commissioners to understand more about the whole process, including the different kinds of purpose a model can have and the different technical bases. This paper offers a guide to the process of commissioning, developing and deploying models across a wide range of domains from public policy to science and engineering. It provides two checklists to help potential modellers, commissioners and users ensure they have considered the most significant factors that will determine success. We conclude there is a need to reinforce modelling as a discipline, so that misconstruction is less likely; to increase understanding of modelling in all domains, so that the misuse of models is reduced; and to bring commissioners closer to modelling, so that the results are more useful.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1005985107
发表时间：
2010-06-29
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Nordhaus, William D.
通讯作者：
Nordhaus, William D.
影响因子：
1.8
作者：
PHILLIPS, LD
通讯作者：
PHILLIPS, LD
影响因子：
22.7
作者：
KELLER, RM
通讯作者：
KELLER, RM
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
Baeten, JCM
通讯作者：
Baeten, JCM