Vulnerability assessment of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary, China to sea-level rise
Vulnerability assessment of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary, China to sea-level rise
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长江口滨海湿地对海平面上升的脆弱性评估
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecss.2014.06.015
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发表时间：
2015-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Zhang Li-Quan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cui Li-Fang;Ge Zhen-Ming;Yuan Lin;Zhang Li-Quan
全球气候变化引起的海平面上升将对沿海低洼地带产生重大影响。长江口低海拔的滨海湿地对SLR特别敏感。采用SPRC（Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence）模型分析了SLR对长江口滨海湿地的潜在影响。以SPRC模型和IPCC脆弱性定义为基础，选取SLR率、沉降率、生境海拔、生境日均淹没历时和沉积速率为关键指标，建立了滨海湿地SLR脆弱性评价指标体系。建立了基于GIS平台的脆弱性空间评价方法，通过量化各指标，计算脆弱性指数，并对脆弱性进行分级。脆弱性评估，根据目前的趋势（0.26厘米/年）和IPCC的A1 F1情景（0.59厘米/年）的SLR率的预测，进行了三个时间段：短期（2030年代），中期（2050年代）和长期（2100年代）。结果表明，在21世纪30年代，在现状趋势情景和A1 F1情景下，滨海湿地处于低脆弱性的比例分别为6.6%和9.0%.到21世纪50年代，滨海湿地处于低脆弱性和中等脆弱性的比例分别增加到9.8%和0.2%，在目前趋势情景和A1 F1情景下分别增加到9.5%和1.0%。21世纪，在现状趋势情景和A1 F1情景下，滨海湿地处于低度脆弱性的比例分别为8.1%和3.0%，处于中度脆弱性的比例分别为0.8%和2.8%。处于高脆弱性等级的滨海湿地比例显著增加，在当前趋势情景和A1 F1情景下分别为2.3%和6.9%。SPRC模型的应用，开发的方法和结果可以帮助客观和定量评估的脆弱性沿海湿地遭受SLR的影响。如果没有适当的缓解措施，湿地面积的潜在减少以及生境和生态系统服务的损失是不可避免的。根据研究结果，为保护长江口滨海湿地的未来，应考虑采取减缓措施，包括控制沉积、恢复和重建湿地生境、减少地面沉降和控制围垦。
Sea-level rise (SLR) caused by global climate change will have significant impacts on the low-lying coastal zone. The coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary, with their low elevation, are particularly sensitive to SLR. In this study, the potential impacts of SLR on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by adopting the SPRC (Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence) model. Based on the SPRC model and IPCC vulnerability definition, an indicator system for vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands to SLR was developed, in which the rate of SLR, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, mean daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A spatial assessment method based on a GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. Vulnerability assessment, based on the projection of SLR rates from the present trend (0.26 cm/yr) and IPCC's A1F1scenario (0.59 cm/yr), were performed for three time periods: short-term (2030s), medium-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results indicated that in the 2030s, 6.6% and 9.0% of the coastal wetlands were within the grade of low vulnerability under the scenarios of present trend and A1F1, respectively. In the 2050s, the percentage of coastal wetlands within the grades of low and moderate vulnerability increases to 9.8% and 0.2%, 9.5% and 1.0% under the scenarios of present trend and A1F1, respectively. In the 2100s, 8.1% and 3.0% of the coastal wetlands were within the grade of low vulnerability, 0.8% and 2.8% were within the grade of moderate vulnerability under the scenarios of present trend and A1F1, respectively. The percentage of coastal wetlands within the grade of high vulnerability increases significantly, amounting to 2.3% and 6.9% under the scenarios of present trend and A1F1, respectively. The application of the SPRC model, the methodology developed and the results could assist with the objective and quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of coastal wetlands undergoing the impacts of SLR elsewhere. Without proper mitigation measures, the potential decrease in the area and loss of habitats and ecosystem services from the wetlands is inevitable. Based on the results of this study, mitigation measures should be considered for securing the future of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary, which include the management of sedimentation, rehabilitation and re-creation of wetland habitat, reduction of land subsidence and control of reclamation.
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