Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050
Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050
复制标题
模拟青藏高原中部羌塘一号冰川至2050年的演化
DOI：
10.1657/aaar0016-008
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发表时间：
2017-02
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Zhao Liyun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li Yemeng;Tian Lide;Yi Yang;Moore John C.;Sun Sainan;Zhao Liyun
本文采用三维热-力耦合full-Stokes冰动力学模型，模拟了青塘1号冰的演化过程。利用度日模式以及基于附近观测的雪温和降水估算来估算过去30年的地表质量平衡（SMB）。由此得到的SMB梯度和平衡线高度（ELA）对气温的敏感性被用来参数化未来的SMB。我们使用冰流模型模拟了2013 - 2050年的冰川演化。模拟的冰川内温度和现在的冰川末端退缩率与以前的观测结果基本一致。在2013-2050年A1B情景下，强迫历史变暖趋势为0.035°C a-1的冰川模式和高分辨率区域气候模式（RegCM3）的变暖预估导致大量退缩和冰损失，年径流量大幅增加（110%-155%）。在未来40年，预计面积损失11%-18%，体积损失19%-30%，而RegCM3情景的温度更高，损失率更高。冰川变化对SMB剖面参数的敏感性也进行了评估。
ABSTRACT Few simulations of typical Tibetan Plateau glacier response to climate warming have been made, despite the glaciers' importance as water supplies in an arid region. Here we apply a three-dimensional thermomechanically coupled full-Stokes ice dynamics model to simulate the evolution of Qingtang No. 1 Glacier, a representative glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau. A degree-day model along with snow temperature and precipitation estimates based on nearby observations are used to estimate surface mass balance (SMB) over the past three decades. The resulting SMB gradients and equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) sensitivity to air temperature are used to parameterize the SMB in the future. We use the ice-flow model to simulate glacier evolution from 2013 to 2050. Simulated within-glacier temperatures and present-day glacier terminus retreat rates are in reasonable agreement with previous observations. Forcing the glacier model with the historical warming trend of 0.035 °C a-1 and a warming projection from the high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) under the A1B scenario for the period 2013–2050 leads to substantial retreat and ice loss, and large increases (110%–155%) in annual water runoff. Losses of 11%–18% in area and 19%–30% in volume are predicted over the next four decades, with the warmer RegCM3 scenario giving larger rates of loss. Sensitivity of glacier change to the parameters in SMB profiles are also assessed.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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期刊：
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影响因子：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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期刊：
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
影响因子：
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