Age patterns of under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa during 1990-2018: A comparison of estimates from demographic surveillance with full birth histories and the historic record.
Age patterns of under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa during 1990-2018: A comparison of estimates from demographic surveillance with full birth histories and the historic record.
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DOI：
10.4054/demres.2021.44.18
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发表时间：
2021-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Reniers G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eilerts H;Prieto JR;Eaton JW;Reniers G
对撒哈拉以南非洲人口 5 岁以下死亡率 (U5M) 的估计通常在很大程度上依赖于调查中收集的完整出生史 (FBH)，以及根据其他人口的生命统计数据校准的死亡率模型年龄模式。健康和人口监测系统 (HDSS) 是撒哈拉以南非洲大部分地区人口数据的替代来源，在估算中较少正式使用。在本研究中，我们比较了非洲不同数据源（HDSS、人口与健康调查 (DHS) 和多指标类集调查 (MICS)）中 5 岁以下人口的年龄模式，并将其与人类死亡率数据库和模型年龄模式中总结的历史记录进行对比。我们检查了不同数据源的新生儿、新生儿后、婴儿和儿童死亡率的相对水平。我们直接将 DHS 和 MICS 次国家地区的估计值与 HDSS 进行比较，并使用线性回归来识别与估计值之间差异相关的数据和背景属性。 HDSS 和 FBH 数据表明，非洲人口的儿童死亡率高于历史记录，婴儿死亡率低于历史记录。这种年龄模式对于西非人口最为明显，但也体现了其他次区域的数据特征。 HDSS 和 FBH 数据之间的比较表明 FBH 对儿童死亡率的估计存在向下偏差。对于新生儿和婴儿死亡率，这种比较的结论性较差。本研究对使用主要来自高收入环境的模型年龄模式来推断或纠正非洲人口 U5M 估计值的做法提出了质疑。它还强调了 U5M 的 HDSS 和 FBH 估计的一致性存在相当大的不确定性。
Estimates of under-5 mortality (U5M) for sub-Saharan African populations often rely heavily on full birth histories (FBHs) collected in surveys and model age patterns of mortality calibrated against vital statistics from other populations. Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) are alternate sources of population-based data in much of sub-Saharan Africa, which are less formally utilized in estimation. In this study we compare the age pattern of U5M in different African data sources (HDSSs, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS)), and contrast these with the historical record as summarized in the Human Mortality Database and model age patterns. We examined the relative levels of neonatal, postneonatal, infant, and child mortality across data sources. We directly compared estimates for DHS and MICS subnational regions with HDSS, and used linear regression to identify data and contextual attributes that correlated with the disparity between estimates. HDSS and FBH data suggests that African populations have higher levels of child mortality and lower infant mortality than the historic record. This age pattern is most explicit for Western African populations, but also characterizes data for other subregions. The comparison between HDSS and FBH data suggests that FBH estimates of child mortality are biased downward. The comparison is less conclusive for neonatal and infant mortality. This study questions the practice of using model age patterns derived from largely high-income settings for inferring or correcting U5M estimates for African populations. It also highlights the considerable uncertainty around the consistency of HDSS and FBH estimates of U5M.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Liu, Li;Kalter, Henry D.;Black, Robert E.
通讯作者：
Black, Robert E.
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
CANTRELLE, P;LERIDON, H
通讯作者：
LERIDON, H
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Chen, LM;Sun, CA;Lee, WC
通讯作者：
Lee, WC
影响因子：
--
作者：
MCGREGOR, IA;BILLEWICZ, WZ;THOMSON, AM
通讯作者：
THOMSON, AM
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Guillot, Michel;Gerland, Patrick;Saabneh, Ameed
通讯作者：
Saabneh, Ameed