The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections.
The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2013182117
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发表时间：
2020-12-01
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Grenfell BT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baker RE;Park SW;Yang W;Vecchi GA;Metcalf CJE;Grenfell BT
非药物干预(NPI)，如社会距离，不仅可以减少新冠肺炎病例，还可以减少其他流行感染，如流感和呼吸道合胞病毒。在NPI到位后，这些感染的易感人群将会增加。使用与RSV和流感历史病例相适应的模型，我们预测这两种疾病未来可能会在一段时间内发生大规模的NPI。这些疫情可能在冬季达到高峰，可能会增加医疗系统的负担。非药物干预(NPI)已被用来减少严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的传播，但这些措施已经对其他直接传播的地方性疾病产生了类似的效果。这些疾病季节性传播模式的中断可能会对未来暴发的时间和严重程度产生影响。在这里，我们考虑SARS-CoV-2 NPIs对在美国流行的两种地方性感染的影响：呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)和季节性流感。使用2020年以来的实验室监测数据，我们估计在NPI时期开始时，RSV在美国的传播至少下降了20%。我们使用流行病模型来模拟RSV和流感的未来轨迹。随着NPI期间易感性的增加，我们发现未来几年可能会发生RSV的大规模暴发，高峰可能出现在2021-2022年冬季。一般说来，较长的NPI会导致更大的未来暴发，尽管它们可能与基线季节性表现出复杂的相互作用。流感的结果大致呼应了这一图景，但更不确定；未来的暴发可能取决于传播性和流行毒株的进化动态。
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, reduce not only COVID-19 cases but also other circulating infections such as influenza and RSV. The susceptible population for these infections will increase while NPIs are in place. Using models fit to historic cases of RSV and influenza, we project large future outbreaks of both diseases may occur following a period of extended NPIs. These outbreaks, which may reach peak numbers in the winter, could increase the burden to healthcare systems. Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021–2022. Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality. Results for influenza broadly echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future outbreaks are likely dependent on the transmissibility and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains.
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影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Martinez ME
通讯作者：
Martinez ME
DOI：
10.1126/science.aay6485
发表时间：
2019-11-01
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Mina MJ;Kula T;Leng Y;Li M;de Vries RD;Knip M;Siljander H;Rewers M;Choy DF;Wilson MS;Larman HB;Nelson AN;Griffin DE;de Swart RL;Elledge SJ
通讯作者：
Elledge SJ
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Gelaro, Ronald;McCarty, Will;Zhao, Bin
通讯作者：
Zhao, Bin
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1113342109
发表时间：
2012-02-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan;Ratmann, Oliver;Grenfell, Bryan T.
通讯作者：
Grenfell, Bryan T.
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Becker, Alexander D.;Wesolowski, Amy;Grenfell, Bryan T.
通讯作者：
Grenfell, Bryan T.