Females, the Elderly, and also Males: Demographic Aging and Macroeconomy in Japan
Females, the Elderly, and also Males: Demographic Aging and Macroeconomy in Japan
复制标题
女性、老年人和男性：日本的人口老龄化和宏观经济
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hikaru Takeuchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Kitao;Minamo Mikoshiba;Hikaru Takeuchi
日本人口老龄化的速度和规模都是前所未有的。劳动力的迅速减少和为社会保障支出提供资金的财政负担的增加可能在很长一段时间内阻碍经济增长。我们建立了一个动态的一般均衡模型，该模型由在就业类型和劳动生产率以及预期寿命方面存在差异的男性和女性重叠的几代人组成。我们研究了未来几十年劳动力市场的变化将如何影响日本经济和财政状况的转型路径。我们发现，尽管在转型期间工资会下降，但女性和男女老年人的劳动力供给在粗放边际和生产率方面的增加可以显著缓解人口老龄化对宏观经济的影响，并减轻财政压力。我们还量化了不同人口情景和财政政策的影响。该研究表明，消除阻碍劳动力供应的障碍、更有效地分配所有年龄段的男女工人的政策组合，对于控制政府赤字和提高全国收入至关重要。
The speed and magnitude of the ongoing demographic aging in Japan are unprecedented. A rapid decline in the labor force and a rising fiscal burden to finance social security expenditures could hamper growth over a prolonged period. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model populated by overlapping generations of males and females who differ in employment type and labor productivity in addition to life expectancy. We study how changes in the labor market over the coming decades will affect the transition path of the economy and fiscal situation of Japan. We find that a rise in the labor supply of females and the elderly of both genders in extensive margin and in productivity can significantly mitigate the effects of demographic aging on the macroeconomy and reduce fiscal pressures, despite a decline in wages during the transition. We also quantify effects of alternative demographic scenarios and fiscal policies. The study suggests that a combination of policies that remove obstacles hindering the labor supply and that create a more efficient allocation of male and female workers of all age groups will be critical to keeping government deficits under control and raising incomes across the nation.
女性整个生命周期的工资、经验和培训
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Blundell R
通讯作者：
Blundell R