Automation and Jobs: When Technology Boosts Employment
Automation and Jobs: When Technology Boosts Employment
复制标题
自动化和就业：当技术促进就业时
作者：
James Bessen
新技术是否会导致行业失业，从而需要新的政策来解决大规模失业问题？有时，提高生产力的技术反而会增加行业就业。在制造业中，一个多世纪以来，就业机会随着生产力的增长而增长。直到后来，生产率的提高才导致就业率下降。发生了什么变化？需求弹性。本文利用美国纺织、钢铁和汽车行业两个世纪以来的数据表明，自动化最初刺激了就业增长，因为需求弹性很大。但需求后来变得饱和，导致失业。一个简单的模型解释了为什么这种模式可能很常见，表明当今的技术可能会导致一些行业衰退，而另一些行业则增长。自动化可能不会导致大规模失业，但很可能要求工人向新行业进行颠覆性转型，需要新的技能和职业。
Will new technologies cause industries to shed jobs, requiring novel policies to address mass unemployment? Sometimes productivity-enhancing technology increases industry employment instead. In manufacturing, jobs grew along with productivity for a century or more; only later did productivity gains bring declining employment. What changed? The elasticity of demand. Using data over two centuries for US textile, steel and auto industries, this paper shows that automation initially spurred job growth because demand was highly elastic. But demand later became satiated, leading to job losses. A simple model explains why this pattern might be common, suggesting that today’s technologies may cause some industries to decline and others to grow. Automation might not cause mass unemployment, but it may well require workers to make disruptive transitions to new industries, requiring new skills and occupations.
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Acemoglu, Daron;Restrepo, Pascual
通讯作者：
Restrepo, Pascual