SARS outbreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism.
SARS outbreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism.
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DOI：
10.1016/s0022-5193(03)00228-5
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发表时间：
2003-09-07
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Castillo-Chavez C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chowell G;Fenimore PW;Castillo-Garsow MA;Castillo-Chavez C
在这篇文章中，我们使用全球和区域的SARS流行病的数据，结合模型的易感，暴露，感染，诊断，并恢复类的人（“SEIJR”）提取这些人群的平均属性和速率常数。该模型适用于来自加拿大安大略省（多伦多）、中国香港和新加坡疫情的数据，并根据各种假设和观察进行预测，包括隔离确诊为SARS的个人的当前影响。香港和新加坡的流行动态似乎与安大略多伦多的动态不同。多伦多在3月31日至4月6日期间显示病例数量增长非常迅速，随后新病例数量明显放缓。我们解释这是由于3月26日之后诊断率和患者隔离有效性增加的结果。我们最好的估计是一致的SARS最终被控制在多伦多，虽然遏制的时间是敏感的参数在我们的模型。它表明，尽管经验模型的异质性传播，SARS的平均繁殖数是1.2，一个值非常类似的计算为某些株的流感（数学生物学杂志27（1989）233）。虽然在世界某些地区（如果不加检查）SARS感染率高于10%并不令人惊讶，但缺乏数据以及观察到的参数的异质性和敏感性使我们无法预测SARS的长期影响。世界上10%或更多的高危人口最终可能感染该病毒，死亡率为3 - 7%或更多，多伦多的重大改善迹象支持采取严格措施隔离确诊病例。
In this article we use global and regional data from the SARS epidemic in conjunction with a model of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, and recovered classes of people (“SEIJR”) to extract average properties and rate constants for those populations. The model is fitted to data from the Ontario (Toronto) in Canada, Hong Kong in China and Singapore outbreaks and predictions are made based on various assumptions and observations, including the current effect of isolating individuals diagnosed with SARS. The epidemic dynamics for Hong Kong and Singapore appear to be different from the dynamics in Toronto, Ontario. Toronto shows a very rapid increase in the number of cases between March 31st and April 6th, followed by a significant slowing in the number of new cases. We explain this as the result of an increase in the diagnostic rate and in the effectiveness of patient isolation after March 26th. Our best estimates are consistent with SARS eventually being contained in Toronto, although the time of containment is sensitive to the parameters in our model. It is shown that despite the empirically modeled heterogeneity in transmission, SARS’ average reproductive number is 1.2, a value quite similar to that computed for some strains of influenza (J. Math. Biol. 27 (1989) 233). Although it would not be surprising to see levels of SARS infection higher than 10% in some regions of the world (if unchecked), lack of data and the observed heterogeneity and sensitivity of parameters prevent us from predicting the long-term impact of SARS. The possibility that 10 or more percent of the world population at risk could eventually be infected with the virus in conjunction with a mortality rate of 3–7% or more, and indications of significant improvement in Toronto support the stringent measures that have been taken to isolate diagnosed cases.
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
CASTILLOCHAVEZ, C;HETHCOTE, HW;LIU, WM
通讯作者：
LIU, WM
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Drosten, C;G端nther, S;Doerr, HW
通讯作者：
Doerr, HW
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Ksiazek, TG;Erdman, D;Anderson, LJ
通讯作者：
Anderson, LJ