Operationalising factors that explain the emergence of infectious diseases: a case study of the human campylobacteriosis epidemic.
Operationalising factors that explain the emergence of infectious diseases: a case study of the human campylobacteriosis epidemic.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0079331
复制
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Forbes KJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Strachan NJ;Rotariu O;MacRae M;Sheppard SK;Smith-Palmer A;Cowden J;Maiden MC;Forbes KJ
利用时间序列和风险因素数据等解释变量，为弯曲杆菌建立了传染病出现的一般因素框架。这些变量是通过结合经验流行病学、病例病例和病例对照研究、时间序列分析和微生物分型（来源归因、多样性、遗传距离）来生成的，以揭示人类弯曲菌病不断变化/新出现的病因学。该研究重点关注 1990 年至 2012 年间的苏格兰，报告病例增加了 75%，其中老年人增加了 300% 以上，幼儿减少了 50%。在此期间分为三个阶段：1990年至2000年上涨75%，到2006年下降20%，随后又出现19%的复苏。这一增长与家禽业的扩张、鸡肉消费以及病例从农村向城市的转变同时发生。 2000年后，除老年人外，所有群体都出现了下降，并且与鸡肉中弯曲杆菌感染率下降和农村病例比例上升同时发生。老年人的增加与质子泵抑制剂的摄入有关。在复苏期间，这种增加主要发生在成年人和老年人中，质子泵抑制剂的使用也有所增加，并且在鸡和反刍动物中患病率很高。研究期间与出国旅行相关的病例也从 9% 增加到 2006 年的峰值 16%，然后在 2011 年下降到估计的 10%，主要是成人和年龄较大的儿童。在所有三个时期，来源归因、遗传距离和多样性测量都使人类分离株与鸡中的分离株最相似。传染病通用的出现因素的组合导致了弯曲杆菌的流行。可以利用这些来获得对人类疾病变化的推定解释，并有可能对未来发病率可能如何变化做出明智的看法。
A framework of general factors for infectious disease emergence was made operational for Campylobacter utilising explanatory variables including time series and risk factor data. These variables were generated using a combination of empirical epidemiology, case-case and case-control studies, time series analysis, and microbial sub-typing (source attribution, diversity, genetic distance) to unravel the changing/emerging aetiology of human campylobacteriosis. The study focused on Scotland between 1990–2012 where there was a 75% increase in reported cases that included >300% increase in the elderly and 50% decrease in young children. During this period there were three phases 1990–2000 a 75% rise and a 20% fall to 2006, followed by a 19% resurgence. The rise coincided with expansions in the poultry industry, consumption of chicken, and a shift from rural to urban cases. The post-2000 fall occurred across all groups apart from the elderly and coincided with a drop of the prevalence of Campylobacter in chicken and a higher proportion of rural cases. The increase in the elderly was associated with uptake of proton pump inhibitors. During the resurgence the increase was predominantly in adults and the elderly, again there was increasing use of PPIs and high prevalences in chicken and ruminants. Cases associated with foreign travel during the study also increased from 9% to a peak of 16% in 2006 before falling to an estimated 10% in 2011, predominantly in adults and older children. During all three periods source attribution, genetic distance, and diversity measurements placed human isolates most similar to those in chickens. A combination of emergence factors generic for infectious diseases were responsible for the Campylobacter epidemic. It was possible to use these to obtain a putative explanation for the changes in human disease and the potential to make an informed view of how incidence rates may change in the future.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Didelot, Xavier;Falush, Daniel
通讯作者：
Falush, Daniel
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Bessell, Paul R.;Rotariu, Ovidiu;Matthews, Louise
通讯作者：
Matthews, Louise
影响因子：
5
作者：
Ethelberg, S;Simonsen, J;Molbak, K
通讯作者：
Molbak, K
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Blaser, MJ
通讯作者：
Blaser, MJ
影响因子：
9.4
作者：
HUNTER, PR;GASTON, MA
通讯作者：
GASTON, MA