Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation
Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation
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NASA 太空辐射宇航员癌症风险模型的技术评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Nasa
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作者：
Nasa
应NASA的要求，美国国家研究委员会（NRC）空间辐射致癌风险模型评估委员会审查了NASA提出的对其宇航员辐射致癌风险评估模型所做的一些修改。目前使用的美国宇航局模型最近一次更新是在2005年，拟议的模型将纳入旨在改进对空间辐射环境造成的健康风险的量化和了解的最新研究。NASA提出的模型由2011年NASA报告《2010年空间辐射癌症风险预测和不确定性》定义（Cucinotta et al., 2011）。委员会的评估主要基于这一来源，下文称为2011年NASA报告，其中提到的具体章节或表格更正式地引用为Cucinotta等人（2011）。许多组织的报告已经充分描述了估计低线性能量转移（LET）辐射暴露引起的癌症风险的整个过程。它们包括最近的：(1)NRC电离辐射生物效应委员会（BEIR）的“BEIR VII第二阶段”报告（NRC, 2006）；(2)联合国原子辐射影响科学委员会的辐射与癌症研究（UNSCEAR, 2006）；(3)国际放射防护委员会2007年建议，ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007)；(4)美国环境保护署（EPA）报告了美国人口放射性致癌风险模型和预测（EPA, 2011）。所有这些专家组的报告中所描述的方法非常相似。NASA拟议的空间辐射致癌风险评估模型作为其主要产出，计算特定年龄和性别的暴露诱发死亡风险，以用于估计任务和宇航员特定的癌症风险。该模型还计算了REID中相关的不确定性。拟议模型中评估风险和不确定性的一般方法与目前（2005年）NASA模型所使用的方法大致相似，并以国家辐射防护和测量委员会（NCRP, 2000,2006）的建议为基础。然而，NASA提出的模型在以下方面有重大变化：将新的发现和方法整合到其组成部分，考虑到最新的流行病学数据和分析，新的放射生物学数据表明白血病和实体癌的质量因素不同，根据辐射轨道结构概念指定质量因素的改进方法，而不是先前基于线性能量传递的方法，开发新的太阳粒子事件（SPE）模型，以及银河宇宙射线（GCR）和屏蔽传输模型的更新。最新的流行病学信息包括对日本原子弹幸存者寿命研究（LSS）中癌症发病率的更新（Preston等人，2007年），该研究转移到美国人口中，并从美国人口统计数据转换为癌症死亡率。此外，该模型还提供了一种适用于终生不吸烟者（NSs）的替代分析。模型中不确定性分析的细节也进行了更新和修订。NASA提出的模型和相关的不确定性在其公式中是复杂的，因此需要一套非常清晰和精确的描述。委员会发现，2011年NASA的报告很难审查，主要是因为模型描述和各种参数的推导都不够清晰。在整个审查过程中，委员会要求NASA做出一些澄清，并解决了书面描述中许多含糊不清的问题，但不是全部。
At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP, 2000, 2006). However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors (Preston et al., 2007), transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.
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由定义的线性能量转移的带电粒子诱导的诱变的细胞和分子分析。
DOI：
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
Radiation research.
影响因子：
--
作者：
Zhu,LX;Waldren,CA;Vannias,D;Hei,TK
通讯作者：
Hei,TK
存在认知不确定性时的假设检验、统计功效和置信限度。
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Stram,DanielO;Thomas,DuncanC;Kopecky,KennethJ
通讯作者：
Kopecky,KennethJ
有关辐射诱发甲状腺癌的问题和流行病学证据。
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Shore,RE
通讯作者：
Shore,RE
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
BEDFORD, JS;GOODHEAD, DT
通讯作者：
GOODHEAD, DT