The Possible Reasons for the Misrepresented Long-Term Climate Trends in the Seasonal Forecasts of HFP2
The Possible Reasons for the Misrepresented Long-Term Climate Trends in the Seasonal Forecasts of HFP2
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HFP2 季节预测中长期气候趋势误报的可能原因
DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-12-00302.1
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发表时间：
2013-08
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Lin, Hai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jia, XiaoJing;Lin, Hai
摘要：使用加拿大历史预报项目 (HFP2) 第二阶段的 33 年多模式集合 (MME) 预报来检查动态季节预报系统中的气候趋势。结果发现，欧亚大陆3-5月季节预报（MAM）变暖趋势与观测结果吻合较好。然而，季节性预报未能重现 12 月至 2 月 (DJF) 观察到的明显表面气温 (SAT) 趋势。研究了 MAM 和 DJF 中 HFP2 模型不同行为的可能原因。结果表明，MAM中HFP2预报系统使用的初始条件欧亚大陆有变暖趋势，这可能来自于高频天气系统，而DJF季节预报的初始条件则不存在这种趋势。初始条件的这种趋势有助于第一个月季节性预测的趋势。另一方面，前任...
AbstractThe climate trend in a dynamical seasonal forecasting system is examined using 33-yr multimodel ensemble (MME) forecasts from the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2). It is found that the warming trend of the seasonal forecast in March–May (MAM) over the Eurasian continent is in a good agreement with that in the observations. However, the seasonal forecast failed to reproduce the observed pronounced surface air temperature (SAT) trend in December–February (DJF). The possible reasons responsible for the different behaviors of the HFP2 models in MAM and DJF are investigated. Results show that the initial conditions used for the HFP2 forecast system in MAM have a warming trend over the Eurasian continent, which may come from high-frequency weather systems, whereas the initial conditions for the DJF seasonal forecast do not have such a trend. This trend in the initial condition contributes to the trend of the seasonal forecast in the first month. On the other hand, an ex...
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影响因子：
8.9
作者：
H. Ritchie
通讯作者：
H. Ritchie
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
K. Trenberth;Shyh-C. Chen
通讯作者：
K. Trenberth;Shyh-C. Chen
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
M. Cai;Chul‐Su Shin;H. Dool;Wanqiu Wang;S. Saha;Arun Kumar
通讯作者：
M. Cai;Chul‐Su Shin;H. Dool;Wanqiu Wang;S. Saha;Arun Kumar
DOI：
10.1111/j.1600-0870.2004.00060.x
发表时间：
2004-08-01
影响因子：
2
作者：
Johannessen, OM;Bengtsson, L;Cattle, AP
通讯作者：
Cattle, AP
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Mei Zhao;P. Dirmeyer
通讯作者：
Mei Zhao;P. Dirmeyer