Dramatic decrease in streamflow from the headwater source in the central route of China's water diversion project: Climatic variation or human influence?
Dramatic decrease in streamflow from the headwater source in the central route of China's water diversion project: Climatic variation or human influence?
复制标题
南水北调中线工程源头径流量大幅减少：气候变化还是人为影响？
DOI：
10.1029/2011jd016879
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发表时间：
2012-03
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Xia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
X. Liu;C. Liu;Y. Luo;M. Zhang;J. Xia
丹江口水库是南水北调中线工程的水源地。1951 - 1989年，入库流量为40.97 km（3），1990 - 2006年为31.64 km（3）。在两个时期之间，平均年径流量减少了9.33 km（3），占中线拟调水量（13 km 3/年）的71.8%。径流量的急剧减少将不可避免地对SNWDP的实施产生负面影响。在制定任何适应战略之前，应调查流量减少的原因。本研究以气候弹性法评估气候变迁与人类活动对河川径流量之影响。结果表明，气候变化（以降水量和潜在蒸散量表示）对径流量减少的影响占84.1-90.1%，而人类活动或其他不确定因素对径流量减少的影响占9.9-15.9%。年平均降水量减少69.89 mm，占径流量减少的81.6-87.3%。根据研究期内的观测资料，规划调水在一定年份可能会对丹江口水库下游地区造成生态灾害。建议从丹江口水库调水时，应采取适应性的方式，而不应采用目前的年调水计划。
The Danjiangkou Reservoir is the headwater source of the central route of China's South to North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP). Average annual streamflow into the Reservoir was 40.97 km(3) from 1951 to 1989, while it was 31.64 km(3) from 1990 to 2006. Between the two periods, the average annual streamflow was reduced by 9.33 km(3), accounting for 71.8% of the proposed amount of water diversion of the central route (13 km3 per year). The sharply decreasing streamflow would inevitably have negative impacts on the implementation of the SNWDP. The reasons for the decrease in streamflow should be investigated before developing any adaption strategies. In this study, the impacts of climatic variation and human activities on streamflow were evaluated by a climate elasticity method. The results show that the impact of climatic variation (indicated by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) was responsible for 84.1-90.1% of the streamflow reduction, while human activities or other indentified uncertainties contributed 9.9-15.9% of the streamflow reduction. The observed 69.89 mm decrease in average annual precipitation contributed 81.6-87.3% of the decrease in streamflow. According to the observed data during the study period, the planned water diversion could lead to an ecological disaster of the downstream area of the Danjiangkou Reservoir in certain years. We suggest that the water diversion from the Danjiangkou Reservoir should be conducted in an adaptive manner to avoid such an adverse consequence, instead of the current plan of a fixed annual amount of water.
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2004
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
N. S. Christensen
通讯作者：
N. S. Christensen
影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
10.2307/1402637
发表时间：
1949-12
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
M. Kendall
通讯作者：
M. Kendall
DOI：
10.1007/978-1-4684-6683-6_9
发表时间：
1981
期刊：
--
影响因子：
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作者：
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R. Forthofer;R. Lehnen