The effect of seasonal and extreme floods on hospitalizations for Legionnaires' disease in the United States, 2000-2011.
The effect of seasonal and extreme floods on hospitalizations for Legionnaires' disease in the United States, 2000-2011.
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2000-2011年美国季节性和极端洪水对军团病住院治疗的影响。
DOI：
10.1186/s12879-022-07489-x
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发表时间：
2022-06-15
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Shaman, Jeffrey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lynch, Victoria D.;Shaman, Jeffrey
极端风暴的日益严重和更强烈的季节性洪水预计将是美国气候变化的后果。除了风暴潮和灾难性洪灾造成的直接破坏外，这些事件还可能增加传染病传播的风险。我们的目标是确定2000-2011年间美国25个州极端和季节性洪水与退伍军人症住院之间的关系。我们使用非参数Bootstrap方法来检查退伍军人病住院和极端洪水之间的关联，这些关联由多个水文气象变量定义。我们还在广义线性混合模型(GLMM)框架中评估了与命名气旋风暴相关的极端洪水对住院的影响。为了量化季节性洪水的影响，我们使用多模型推理来确定权重最高的洪水指标变量，并在GLMM中评估它们对住院的影响。我们发现，与没有风暴的地点相比，发生风暴的地点每月的住院率增加了32%。极端降水量月份的住院率位于月住院率自举分布的第89个百分位数。土壤水分和降水量是多模型推理确定的权重最大的变量，并包含在最终模型中。月平均土壤湿度增加1标准差(SD)与住院人数增加49%相关；在同一模型中，降水量增加1标准差(SD)与住院人数增加26%相关。这项分析首次使用一系列洪水指标变量和洪水定义来研究洪水对美国退伍军人症住院治疗的影响。我们发现有证据表明，极端和季节性的洪水与住院人数的增加有关；需要进一步的研究来从机械上确定被军团菌污染的洪水是否会驱动传播。网上版载有补充材料，可在10.1186/s12879-022-07489-x查阅。
An increasing severity of extreme storms and more intense seasonal flooding are projected consequences of climate change in the United States. In addition to the immediate destruction caused by storm surges and catastrophic flooding, these events may also increase the risk of infectious disease transmission. We aimed to determine the association between extreme and seasonal floods and hospitalizations for Legionnaires’ disease in 25 US states during 2000–2011. We used a nonparametric bootstrap approach to examine the association between Legionnaires’ disease hospitalizations and extreme floods, defined by multiple hydrometeorological variables. We also assessed the effect of extreme flooding associated with named cyclonic storms on hospitalizations in a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) framework. To quantify the effect of seasonal floods, we used multi-model inference to identify the most highly weighted flood-indicator variables and evaluated their effects on hospitalizations in a GLMM. We found a 32% increase in monthly hospitalizations at sites that experienced cyclonic storms, compared to sites in months without storms. Hospitalizations in months with extreme precipitation were in the 89th percentile of the bootstrapped distribution of monthly hospitalizations. Soil moisture and precipitation were the most highly weighted variables identified by multi-model inference and were included in the final model. A 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in average monthly soil moisture was associated with a 49% increase in hospitalizations; in the same model, a 1-SD increase in precipitation was associated with a 26% increase in hospitalizations. This analysis is the first to examine the effects of flooding on hospitalizations for Legionnaires’ disease in the United States using a range of flood-indicator variables and flood definitions. We found evidence that extreme and seasonal flooding is associated with increased hospitalizations; further research is required to mechanistically establish whether floodwaters contaminated with Legionella bacteria drive transmission. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07489-x.
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影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Berghuijs, Wouter R.;Woods, Ross A.;Sivapalan, M.
通讯作者：
Sivapalan, M.
DOI：
10.1007/0-387-30746-x_39
发表时间：
2006-01-01
期刊：
PROKARYOTES: A HANDBOOK ON THE BIOLOGY OF BACTERIA, VOL 6, THIRD EDITION
影响因子：
--
作者：
Edelstein, Paul H.;Cianciotto, Nicholas P.
通讯作者：
Cianciotto, Nicholas P.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Fisman, DN;Lim, S;Newbern, C
通讯作者：
Newbern, C
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Amaral-Zettler, Linda A.;Rocca, Jennifer D.;Lamontagne, Michael G.;Dennett, Mark R.;Gast, Rebecca J.
通讯作者：
Gast, Rebecca J.
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Collier SA;Deng L;Adam EA;Benedict KM;Beshearse EM;Blackstock AJ;Bruce BB;Derado G;Edens C;Fullerton KE;Gargano JW;Geissler AL;Hall AJ;Havelaar AH;Hill VR;Hoekstra RM;Reddy SC;Scallan E;Stokes EK;Yoder JS;Beach MJ
通讯作者：
Beach MJ