Aging and Disability: Implications for the Housing Industry and Housing Policy in the United States
Aging and Disability: Implications for the Housing Industry and Housing Policy in the United States
复制标题
老龄化和残疾：对美国房地产业和住房政策的影响
DOI：
10.1080/01944360802197132
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发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Eleanor A. Smith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stanley K. Smith;S. Rayer;Eleanor A. Smith
问题：美国老年人口庞大且增长迅速。由于残疾率随着年龄的增长而增加，人口老龄化将带来残疾人数量的大幅增加，并对国家的住房需求产生重大影响。目的：我们展示了人口增长和老龄化对至少有一名残疾居民的预计家庭数量的影响，并估计了新建的单户独立单元在其预期寿命期间至少有一名残疾居民的概率。方法：我们使用残疾的两种替代措施来计算残疾率，并对至少有一名残疾居民的家庭数量进行预测。我们开发并应用了一种技术，利用这些单元的平均寿命、占用这些单元的家庭的平均居住时间以及至少有一名残疾居民的家庭的预计比例等数据，来估计新建的单户独立单元将容纳至少一名残疾居民的概率。结果和结论：在我们的中等假设下，我们预计21%的家庭将在2050年使用我们的第一种残疾衡量标准（身体限制）至少有一名残疾居民，7%使用我们的第二种残疾衡量标准（自我照顾限制）。我们估计，使用我们的第一个测量方法，新建的单户独立单元在其预期寿命内至少容纳一名残疾居民的概率为60%，使用我们的第二个测量方法，概率为25%。当考虑到残疾游客时，概率分别上升到91%和53%。鉴于大多数人都希望尽可能长时间地独立生活，这些数字反映出对残疾人无障碍住房单位的巨大且日益增长的需求。实践启示：无障碍住房的缺乏为住宅建筑商提供了开发和销售满足老龄化人口需求的产品的机会。考虑到对残疾人公民权利的关注和养老院护理的高公共成本，住房无障碍也是规划者和决策者的一个关键问题。我们认为规划者应该扩大他们对建筑环境的视野，包括住房存量的可达性。研究支持：无。
Problem: The elderly population of the United States is large and growing rapidly. Since disability rates increase with age, population aging will bring substantial increases in the number of disabled persons and have a significant impact on the nation's housing needs. Purpose: We demonstrate the impact of population growth and aging on the projected number of households with at least one disabled resident and estimate the probability that a newly built single-family detached unit will have at least one disabled resident during its expected lifetime. Methods: We calculate disability rates using two alternative measures of disability and construct projections of the number of households with at least one disabled resident. We develop and apply a technique for estimating the probability that a newly built single-family detached unit will house at least one disabled resident using data on the average lifespan of those units, the average length of residence for households occupying those units, and the projected proportion of households with at least one disabled resident. Results and conclusions: Under our medium assumptions, we project that 21% of households will have at least one disabled resident in 2050 using our first disability measure (physical limitation) and 7% using our second (self-care limitation). We estimate that there is a 60% probability that a newly built single-family detached unit will house at least one disabled resident during its expected lifetime using our first measure, and a 25% probability using our second measure. When disabled visitors are accounted for, the probabilities rise to 91% and 53%, respectively. Given the desire of most people to live independently for as long as possible, these numbers reflect a large and growing need for housing units with features that make them accessible to disabled persons. Takeaway for practice: The lack of accessible housing provides an opportunity for homebuilders to develop and market products that meet the needs of an aging population. In light of concerns about the civil rights of people with disabilities and the high public cost of nursing home care, housing accessibility is a critical issue for planners and policymakers as well. We believe planners should broaden their vision of the built environment to include the accessibility of the housing stock. Research support: None.
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
Reynolds, SL;Saito, Y;Crimmins, EM
通讯作者：
Crimmins, EM
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.95.26.15618
发表时间：
1998-12-22
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Singer, BH;Manton, KG
通讯作者：
Manton, KG