Model Calculations of Aerosol Transmission and Infection Risk of COVID-19 in Indoor Environments.
Model Calculations of Aerosol Transmission and Infection Risk of COVID-19 in Indoor Environments.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph17218114
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发表时间：
2020-11-03
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Pöschl U
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lelieveld J;Helleis F;Borrmann S;Cheng Y;Drewnick F;Haug G;Klimach T;Sciare J;Su H;Pöschl U
雾化的SARS-CoV-2病毒在COVID-19空气传播中的作用一直存在争议。气溶胶通过呼吸和发声传播。一些作者指出，这代表了传播的主要途径，而另一些人则否定了这一选择。在此，我们提出了一种可调算法来估计不同室内环境下的感染风险，该算法受人类气溶胶排放、SARS-CoV-2病毒载量、感染剂量等参数的约束。我们评估典型的室内环境，如办公室、教室、唱诗班练习和招待会/聚会。我们的研究结果表明，来自高传染性受试者的气溶胶可以在室内环境中有效传播COVID-19。这种“高度传染性”类别约占SARS-CoV-2检测呈阳性的患者的20%。我们发现，“超级感染”受试者，即检测呈阳性的前5-10%的受试者，加上未知比例的较低但仍具有高度传染性、高气溶胶排放的受试者，可能会导致COVID-19聚集性感染（bb10感染）。一般来说，主动房间通风和普遍佩戴口罩（即所有受试者）可能会将个体感染风险降低5到10倍，类似于大容量、高效微粒空气（HEPA）过滤。一项特别有效的缓解措施是使用高质量的口罩，这可以大大降低通过气溶胶在室内感染的风险。
The role of aerosolized SARS-CoV-2 viruses in airborne transmission of COVID-19 has been debated. The aerosols are transmitted through breathing and vocalization by infectious subjects. Some authors state that this represents the dominant route of spreading, while others dismiss the option. Here we present an adjustable algorithm to estimate the infection risk for different indoor environments, constrained by published data of human aerosol emissions, SARS-CoV-2 viral loads, infective dose and other parameters. We evaluate typical indoor settings such as an office, a classroom, choir practice, and a reception/party. Our results suggest that aerosols from highly infective subjects can effectively transmit COVID-19 in indoor environments. This “highly infective” category represents approximately 20% of the patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. We find that “super infective” subjects, representing the top 5–10% of subjects with a positive test, plus an unknown fraction of less—but still highly infective, high aerosol-emitting subjects—may cause COVID-19 clusters (>10 infections). In general, active room ventilation and the ubiquitous wearing of face masks (i.e., by all subjects) may reduce the individual infection risk by a factor of five to ten, similar to high-volume, high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filtering. A particularly effective mitigation measure is the use of high-quality masks, which can drastically reduce the indoor infection risk through aerosols.
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