Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil.

Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil.
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DOI:
10.1590/0074-0276130331
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发表时间:
2013-12
影响因子:
2.8
通讯作者:
Gurgel-Gonçalves R
Gurgel-Gonçalves R
中科院分区:
医学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Almeida PS;Sciamarelli A;Batista PM;Ferreira AD;Nascimento J;Raizer J;Andrade Filho JD;Gurgel-Gonçalves R

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为了了解巴西南马托格罗索州 (MS) 内脏利什曼病 (VL) 的地理分布,对 Lutzomyia longipis 和 VL 病例的气候生态位进行了分析。分布数据取自 2003 年至 2012 年间 79 个 MS 县中的 55 个县。卢的生态位模型(ENM)。 longipalpis 和 VL 案例是使用基于八个气候变量的最大熵算法生成的。鲁。 longipalpis 在 MS 中表现出广泛的分布。气候适宜性最高的是鲁。在 MS 南部发现了 longipalpis。温度季节性和年平均降水量是对这些模型影响最大的变量。预测有两个气候适宜发生 VL 病例的地区:一个靠近阿基达瓦纳,另一个则涵盖 MS 东南部地区的几个城市。正如预期的那样,Lu 的模型之间有很大的重叠。检测到长须和VL病例。 MS的北部和西北部地区适合病例发生,但对鲁的气候适宜度不高。长触须。对病媒和人类病例的 ENM 有助于更好地了解 MS 中 VL 的地理分布,这可用于制定未来的监测策略。
To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis . ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.
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